401 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 152051
 TCDEP3
  
 HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
 200 PM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012
  
 CARLOTTA HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.  AN
 AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTED 700-MB
 FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 99 KT IN THE NORTHERN EYEWALL...AND SFMR WIND
 ESTIMATES OF 90-98 KT IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN EYEWALLS.  THE
 LATEST REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB.  BASED ON THIS...THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 90 KT.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS NOW
 GOOD TO EXCELLENT IN ALL DIRECTIONS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/10.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
 THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CARLOTTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
 FOR 12-24 HOURS.  AFTERWARDS...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
 NORTH OF CARLOTTA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD
 PRODUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AT A
 SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.  AFTER 48 HR...THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN
 AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
 THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
 SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE NEW
 FORECAST TRACK SHOWS THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA MOVING INLAND ALONG THE
 SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN PUERTO ANGEL AND ACAPULCO BETWEEN
 12-24 HR.  IF IT SURVIVES THAT...THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO EMERGE
 OVER THE PACIFIC AND MAKE A SLOW HAIRPIN TURN NEAR THE MEXICAN
 COAST DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
  
 CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED RAPID INTENSIFICATION UNTIL
 THE CENTER IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST FOR THE MEXICAN MOUNTAINS
 TO DISRUPT THE STORM.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON THE
 PREMISE THAT IT WILL BE ANOTHER 6 HR BEFORE THIS HAPPENS AND THAT
 THE PEAK INTENSITY WILL BE NEAR 90 KT.  THIS COULD BE CONSERVATIVE.
 AFTER THIS...THE NEW TRACK FORECAST HAS CAUSED A SIGNIFICANT
 REVISION TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...WHICH IS NOW A COMPROMISE
 BETWEEN TWO EXTREMES.  THE FIRST EXTREME... SUPPORTED BY THE GLOBAL
 MODELS...IS THAT CARLOTTA WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AS IT MOVES OVER
 THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THE SECOND EXTREME...SUPPPORTED
 BY THE GFDL...HWRF...AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IS THAT CARLOTTA
 WILL STAY OVER ENOUGH WATER TO MAINTAIN SOME OF ITS INTENSITY.  THE
 NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE DECAY SHIPS
 MODEL.
  
 THE FORECAST SLOW MOTION COULD BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY
 RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
 LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
  
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  15/2100Z 14.8N  96.3W   90 KT 105 MPH
  12H  16/0600Z 15.7N  97.3W   95 KT 110 MPH
  24H  16/1800Z 16.4N  98.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
  36H  17/0600Z 16.7N  99.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND
  48H  17/1800Z 16.8N 100.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
  72H  18/1800Z 16.5N 100.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  19/1800Z 16.5N  99.0W   25 KT  30 MPH
 120H  20/1800Z 16.0N  98.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN