441 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 151438
 TCDEP3
  
 HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
 800 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012
 
 CONVECTION AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT CARLOTTA HAS
 BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED..WITH THE FORMATION OF AN EYEWALL AND
 EYE INSIDE A WELL-DEFINED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.  SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB WERE 65 KT AT 1200 UTC...AND
 THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 70 KT ON THE PREMISE OF
 CONTINUED STRENGTHENING SINCE THEN.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN
 ALL DIRECTIONS EXCEPT THE EAST.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
 HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION ON
 THE STRUCTURE AND INTENSITY OF CARLOTTA.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 320/10.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF
 THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CARLOTTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD
 FOR ABOUT 24 HOURS. AFTERWARDS...A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE
 NORTH OF CARLOTTA ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD
 PRODUCE A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST AT A
 SLOWER FORWARD SPEED.  AFTER 72 HR...THE STEERING CURRENTS WEAKEN
 AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND
 THE ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
 SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...AND THE NEW
 FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED NORTHWARD BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION
 AND MOTION.  THE NEW FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CENTER TO MOVE NEAR THE
 MEXICAN COAST FROM 24-72 HR...AND THEN MAKE A SMALL ANTICYCLONIC
 LOOP SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
 CARLOTTA APPEARS TO BE UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION...AND THIS
 IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE
 MEXICAN COAST IN 18 HR OR SO.  THE EARLY PART OF THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST HAS BEEN REVISED UPWARD...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CARLOTTA
 COULD GET STRONGER THAN 85 KT BEFORE THE CENTER NEARS THE COAST. 
 AFTER 18 HR...INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO
 SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING...AND BY 120 HR THE FORECAST INTENSITY IS
 SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
 CARLOTTA COULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD IF
 THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.
  
 USERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS ANY
 DEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER
 OF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO.  IN ADDITION...THE FORECAST
 SLOW MOTION COULD BRING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINS TO
 PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-
 THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  15/1500Z 14.0N  96.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  12H  16/0000Z 14.9N  96.7W   80 KT  90 MPH
  24H  16/1200Z 15.9N  97.8W   85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR COAST
  36H  17/0000Z 16.4N  98.8W   75 KT  85 MPH...NEAR COAST
  48H  17/1200Z 16.6N  99.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR COAST
  72H  18/1200Z 16.5N 100.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR COAST
  96H  19/1200Z 16.0N  99.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  20/1200Z 16.0N  99.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN