647 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 150845
 TCDEP3
  
 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
 200 AM PDT FRI JUN 15 2012
  
 THE INNER CORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE...AND A
 SMALL BUT RAGGED CDO HAS FORMED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE
 INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT BASED ON CONSENSUS
 SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF T3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THE
 APPEARANCE OF AT LEAST HALF AN EYEWALL IN A 15/0348Z AMSU OVERPASS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/09 KT. CARLOTTA REMAINS ON THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE
 CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP CARLOTTA MOVING IN A NORTHWESTWARD
 DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTERWARDS...A BLOCKING
 RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF CARLOTTA ACROSS CENTRAL
 AND NORTHERN MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD GRADUALLY FORCE THE STORM ON A
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BY 36 HOURS...AND WESTWARD BY 48 HOURS BUT
 AT A MUCH SLOWER FORWARD SPEED. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE
 BLOCKING RIDGE IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE MODELS TO BREAK DOWN AND
 GIVE WAY TO A BROAD TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE U.S.
 SOUTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH WILL RESULT
 IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. AS A RESULT...CARLOTTA IS EXPECTED TO
 MEANDER NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO
 DURING DAYS 3-5. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
 DEVELOPING TRACK SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
 EASTWARD COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY
 SIGNIFICANT DEEP-LAYER SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW
 THAT WOULD FORCE CARLOTTA INLAND OVER THE HIGH MOUNTAIN RANGE OF
 SOUTHERN MEXICO...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK KEEPS THE CENTER OF
 CARLOTTA JUST OFFSHORE AS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES.
 
 RAPID INTENSIFICATION NOW APPEARS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE RAGGED AND
 ELONGATED APPEARANCE OF THE CDO FEATURE ALONG WITH MODEST EASTERLY
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE
 CURRENT UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND OTHER FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND
 ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING AT A
 NORMAL RATE OF AT LEAST ONE T-NUMBER PER DAY...AND THAT EXPECTATION
 IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
 CARLOTTA COULD PEAK AT 85-90 KT BETWEEN THE 24- AND 36-HOUR
 FORECAST PERIODS BEFORE WEAKENING BEGINS WHEN THE CYCLONE INTERACTS
 WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN MEXICO BY 36 HOURS. THE
 OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS...LGEM...
 HWRF...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE MODELS.
  
 USERS SHOULD NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS ANY
 DEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE ADVISORY TRACK WOULD BRING
 THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO.
  
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  15/0900Z 13.2N  95.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  15/1800Z 14.1N  96.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  16/0600Z 15.2N  97.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
  36H  16/1800Z 15.9N  98.3W   80 KT  90 MPH...NEAR COAST
  48H  17/0600Z 16.3N  99.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR COAST
  72H  18/0600Z 16.5N  99.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...NEAR COAST
  96H  19/0600Z 16.2N  99.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR COAST
 120H  20/0600Z 16.0N  99.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...NEAR COAST
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART