872 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 150232
 TCDEP3
  
 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
 800 PM PDT THU JUN 14 2012
  
 CONVECTION HAS BLOSSOMED NEAR THE CENTER TONIGHT...AND WELL-DEFINED
 CURVED BANDS CONTINUE TO COIL AROUND THE CYCLONE. THE UPPER-LEVEL
 OUTFLOW REMAINS DEFINED IN MOST OF THE QUADRANTS.  RECENT MICROWAVE
 DATA INDICATE THAT AN INNER CORE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
 ORGANIZED BUT AN EYEWALL HAS NOT FORMED YET. SATELLITE INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 3.5 ON THE
 DVORAK SCALE RESULTING IN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS.
 CARLOTTA IS ON AN UPWARD INTENSITY TREND...AND MOST OF THE
 CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR CARLOTTA TO BECOME A
 HURRICANE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING. IN FACT...THE SHIPS MODEL
 SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS A 50/50 CHANCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
 DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONCE THE CYCLONE APPROACHES THE COAST OF
 SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE CIRCULATION BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE
 HIGH TERRAIN...IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD
 BEGIN. IF THE CENTER MOVES INLAND...THE WEAKENING WILL OCCUR MORE
 RAPIDLY.     
 
 THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY CHANGE IN THE INITIAL MOTION...AND CARLOTTA
 IS STILL MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9
 KNOTS. THE NARROW RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST BY GLOBAL
 MODELS TO EXPAND IN THE SHORT TERM...AND THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE
 CARLOTTA ON A TRACK MORE TO THE NORTHWEST AND EVEN WEST-NORTHWEST
 BEYOND 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD KEEP THE CORE OF CARLOTTA MOVING
 VERY SLOWLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 48
 HOURS. STEERING CURRENTS SHOULD COLLAPSE THERAFTER...AND CARLOTTA
 WILL LIKELY MEANDER FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TRACK
 GUIDANCE IN GENERAL IS NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TONIGHT...
 PRIMARILY BEYOND 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
 TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GFS...ECMWF...AND HWRF SOLUTIONS.
 
 USERS ARE AGAIN REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
 TRACK...AS ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
 TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  15/0300Z 12.5N  94.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  15/1200Z 13.5N  95.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  16/0000Z 14.8N  96.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
  36H  16/1200Z 15.7N  97.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
  48H  17/0000Z 16.2N  98.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  72H  18/0000Z 16.5N 100.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  96H  19/0000Z 16.5N 100.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 120H  20/0000Z 16.5N 100.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
  
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