067 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 142033
 TCDEP3
  
 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
 200 PM PDT THU JUN 14 2012
 
 CARLOTTA HAS DEVELOPED A RAGGED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST THAT
 CONTINUES TO BE SURROUNDED BY A COMPLEX OF OUTER RAIN BANDS.
 HOWEVER...A JUST-RECEIVED AMSU OVERPASS DOES NOT YET SHOW AN
 EYEWALL FORMING UNDER THE OVERCAST.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR
 THIS ADVISORY.  THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT
 THE EAST.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/9...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
 MOTION.  CARLOTTA IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL
 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
 SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE.  THE
 DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS PATTERN TO PERSIST FOR PERHAPS 
 36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER
 NORTHERN MEXICO.  THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE CARLOTTA TO MOVE
 GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR ABOUT 36 HR...FOLLOWED BY A MORE
 WESTWARD MOTION FROM 36-72 HR.  THE ENVELOPE OF TRACK MODEL
 GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE LAST 6 HR...AND IT REMAINS
 IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT CARLOTTA SHOULD TRACK NEAR OR OVER THE COAST
 OF MEXICO FROM 36-72 HR.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS JUST A LITTLE
 NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE INITIAL LOCATION AND
 MOTION.  AT ABOUT 72 HR...THE MEXICAN RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN
 AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS
 SHOULD LEAVE THE CYCLONE IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...
 WHICH IS REFLECTED IN A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT IN THE TRACK
 FORECAST.
  
 CARLOTTA REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
 AND OVER 30C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THAT SHOULD ALLOW AT LEAST
 STEADY STRENGTHENING THROUGH 36 HR.  THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
 INDEX OF THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 60-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF 25-KT
 STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HR...AND ABOUT A 35 PERCENT CHANCE
 OF 40-KT STRENGTHENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR
 CARLOTTA TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN LESS THAN 24 HR AND REACH A PEAK
 INTENSITY OF 80 KT IN 36 HR...AND THIS PEAK COULD BE CONSERVATIVE. 
 AFTER 36 HR...LAND INTERACTION WILL BE THE MAIN CONTROLLING FACTOR
 ON THE INTENSITY.  IF CARLOTTA MOVES INLAND...IT SHOULD DISSIPATE
 OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.  EVEN IF IT STAYS OFFSHORE...IT IS
 EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE MOUNTAINS AND
 WEAKEN AS SHOWN BY THE GFDL/HWRF MODELS...AND THAT SCENARIO IS USED
 IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
  
 USERS ARE AGAIN REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST
 TRACK...AS ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
 TRACK WOULD BRING THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA ONTO THE COAST OF MEXICO.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  14/2100Z 11.8N  94.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
  12H  15/0600Z 12.9N  95.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  15/1800Z 14.2N  96.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
  36H  16/0600Z 15.3N  97.3W   80 KT  90 MPH...NEAR COAST
  48H  16/1800Z 16.1N  98.4W   80 KT  90 MPH...NEAR COAST
  72H  17/1800Z 16.5N 100.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...NEAR COAST
  96H  18/1800Z 16.0N 100.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 120H  19/1800Z 15.5N  99.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN