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 788 
 WTPZ23 KNHC 141443
 TCMEP3
  
 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
 1500 UTC THU JUN 14 2012
  
 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
  
 THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
 PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO.
  
 THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
 PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO.
  
 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
  
 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA
 * THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO
  
 INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO CABO
 CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA.
  
 A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
 SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
 TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
 PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
 AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
  
 A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
 WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
 BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
 WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
 DANGEROUS.
   
 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N  93.6W AT 14/1500Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
  
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   8 KT
  
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
 34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE   0SW  45NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
  
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N  93.6W AT 14/1500Z
 AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N  93.4W
  
 FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 11.9N  94.5W
 MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 13.3N  95.6W
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
 34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  80NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.6N  96.7W
 MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.
 50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
 34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.6N  97.7W...NEAR COAST
 MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.
  
 FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 16.5N  99.5W...NEAR COAST
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
 34 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
  
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 16.5N 100.0W...NEAR COAST
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
  
 OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 16.0N 100.0W
 MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
  
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N  93.6W
  
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
  
 
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