115 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 140841
 TCDEP3
  
 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
 200 AM PDT THU JUN 14 2012
  
 CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION
 THREE-E HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS...AND SATELLITE
 INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE A CONSENSUS T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...
 AND UW-CIMSS ADT. IN ADDITION...A 14/0409Z ASCAT OVERPASS CAUGHT
 THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION AND REVEALED SEVERAL 34-KT
 UNFLAGGED SURFACE WIND VECTORS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...THE
 DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA. THE
 ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS BASED ON VALUABLE REPORTS FROM SHIP
 V7DI7 LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/09 KT. CARLOTTA IS MOVING ON A
 STEADY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
 CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO AS THE CYCLONE MOVES AROUND
 THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER
 THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AFTER THAT...
 HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ARE NOW FORECASTING A
 RIDGE TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA
 EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO TEXAS. THIS BLOCKING
 PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO FORCE CARLOTTA TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN
 WESTWARD AS IT NEARS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO BY 72
 HOURS...AND POSSIBLY STALL IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF ACAPULCO BY
 96 HOURS BEFORE DRIFTING BACK SOUTHWARD OVER THE OCEAN. THE MODEL
 GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
 AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REFLECTS THIS NEW
 TREND AS WELL. AS A RESULT...96- AND 120-HOUR FORECAST POSITIONS
 HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THIS ADVISORY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS
 ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48
 HOURS...AND IS THEN WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER THAT...AND
 CLOSELY FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE ECMWF...GFS...UKMET...NOGAPS...AND
 HWRF MODELS.
  
 ENVIRONMENTAL AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CARLOTTA TO
 STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO
 INTERACT WITH LAND. AS ALLUDED TO IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
 RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF THE SMALL CYCLONE IS A VERY DISTINCT
 POSSIBILITY IF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DEVELOPS FARTHER INTO THE
 CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THIS
 SCENARIO WAS CONSIDERED FOR THIS ADVISORY...THE NEW INTENSITY
 FORECAST IS ALREADY ABOUT 10 KT ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND
 MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AS WELL THROUGH 48 HOURS...WHICH IS
 PLENTY ROBUST FOR ONLY A SECOND ADVISORY PACKAGE. HOWEVER...EVEN
 THE HWRF AND ECMWF MODELS MAKE CARLOTTA A HURRICANE BY 48 HOURS...
 WHICH ADDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE NEW HIGHER INTENSITY FORECAST. AT
 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN
 DUE TO HOW MUCH CARLOTTA WILL INTERACT WITH THE COASTAL SIERRA
 MADRE DEL SUR MOUNTAIN RANGE. IF CARLOTTA MOVES FARTHER INLAND THAN
 EXPECTED...THEN THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN MORE THAN FORECAST...AND
 VICE VERSA IF IT SHOULD INSTEAD REMAIN OFFSHORE.
 
 BASED ON THE NEW TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS...HURRICANE AND
 TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING
 FOR PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT HURRICANE WATCH AREA. USERS ARE AGAIN
 REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK AS TYPICAL NHC
 FORECAST ERRORS AT 48 AND 72 HOURS ARE 80 TO 110 N MI.
 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  14/0900Z 10.3N  93.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  14/1800Z 11.4N  94.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  15/0600Z 12.8N  95.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  15/1800Z 14.3N  96.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  48H  16/0600Z 15.5N  97.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
  72H  17/0600Z 16.6N  99.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
  96H  18/0600Z 16.8N 100.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 120H  19/0600Z 16.3N 100.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...OVER WATER
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART