306 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 140254
 TCDEP3
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032012
 800 PM PDT WED JUN 13 2012
  
 SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF
 DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
 GUATEMALA HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH ORGANIZATION FOR THE SYSTEM TO BE
 CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.
 SINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN ITS FORMATIVE STAGE...THE INITIAL
 MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 305/8 KT.  THE CYCLONE IS
 SITUATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
 RIDGE THAT EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND EASTERN
 GULF OF MEXICO.  THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
 AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
 DAYS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT...AND ALL
 OF THE MODELS SHOW THE CYCLONE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
 MEXICO IN ABOUT 48-60 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS
 SCENARIO AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANE ENVELOPE...
 BETWEEN THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS.
  
 THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND
 OVER WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  MOST OF THE INTENSITY
 GUIDANCE CALLS FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING...WITH THE HWRF BEING THE
 MOST AGGRESSIVE.  EVEN THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING
 OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AS A RESULT...THE NHC
 FORECAST CALLS FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING AND BRINGS THE CYCLONE TO
 HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  SINCE THE CIRCULATION IS
 RELATIVELY SMALL AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT...RAPID
 INTENSIFICATION IS A REALISTIC POSSIBILITY DURING THE NEXT 48
 HOURS.  THEREFORE...THE NHC FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE INTENSITY
 CONSENSUS...LEANING TOWARD THE SHIPS AND HWRF SOLUTIONS.
  
 THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST HAS REQUIRED THE ISSUANCE OF A
 HURRICANE WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO.
 USERS ARE REMINDED NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK AS
 TYPICAL NHC FORECAST ERRORS AT 48 AND 72 HOURS ARE 80-110 N MI.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  14/0300Z  9.4N  92.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  14/1200Z 10.3N  93.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  15/0000Z 11.9N  94.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  15/1200Z 13.5N  95.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  16/0000Z 15.0N  96.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  17/0000Z 17.2N  97.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
  96H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN/BERG