272 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 130849
 TCDEP4
 HURRICANE CARLOTTA DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006
 200 AM PDT THU JUL 13 2006
  
 A 0340 UTC SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED THAT CARLOTTA IS
 DEVELOPING AN EYE BENEATH THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST... THOUGH AT
 THAT TIME IT HAD NOT QUITE REACHED THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE
 HURRICANE JUDGING FROM THE 37 GHZ CHANNEL. NIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE
 OCCASIONALLY SHOWS HINTS OF A DIMPLE FORMING WITHIN THE RATHER COLD
 CLOUD TOPS AND IT IS POSSIBLY ONLY A MATTER OF TIME BEFORE AN EYE
 POKES OUT OF THE CDO. INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 75 KT...IN
 BETWEEN THE SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. ALL
 PARAMETERS APPEAR TO BE IN PLACE FOR A CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION
 WITH VERY LOW SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WARM SSTS NEAR
 29C... AND NO OBVIOUS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS. SHIPS IS
 DIAGNOSING AT LEAST 15 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT 24
 HOURS... WHICH SEEMS WAY TOO HIGH GIVEN THE NEARLY SYMMETRIC
 OUTFLOW PATTERN AND THE CIMSS CLOUD-TRACKED WINDS WHICH SHOW
 EASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE. AN
 UPPER-LEVEL LOW HAS BEEN MOVING IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE DURING
 THE PAST 24 HOURS AND IS FORECAST TO CONTRIBUTE TO PROVIDING A
 FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. IN ADDITION...A LEFTWARD
 BEND TO THE TRACK AS DISCUSSED IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH SEEMS LIKELY
 AND IS OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFICATION. THESE FACTORS ARE THE
 BASIS FOR AN INTENSITY FORECAST ABOVE SHIPS AND THE GFDL... WHICH
 HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY UNDER-FORECASTING CARLOTTA. WEAKENING MAY
 COMMENCE BEYOND 48 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION OF THE HURRICANE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
 LEFT.. 285/13 KT DURING THE LAST 6-12 HOURS WITH A SHORTER-TERM
 MOTION PERHAPS EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT. THE TRACK COULD BEND A LITTLE
 MORE TO THE LEFT IN ABOUT A DAY DUE TO A STRENGTHENING OF THE
 MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THIS HIGH IS A LITTLE
 STRONGER IN THE MOST RECENT COMPUTER MODELS... WHICH FORCES THE
 HURRICANE ON MORE OF A WESTWARD TRACK. ONLY THE NOGAPS NOW BRINGS
 CARLOTTA NORTH OF 20N IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
 SHIFTED SOUTHWARD OF PREVIOUS AND IS ROUGHLY IN BETWEEN THE NOGAPS
 AND ECMWF... BOTH OF WHICH APPEAR TO HAVE REASONABLE
 REPRESENTATIONS OF THE STORM'S LIKELY FUTURE STATE.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/0900Z 16.4N 109.4W    75 KT
  12HR VT     13/1800Z 16.9N 111.2W    85 KT
  24HR VT     14/0600Z 17.3N 112.8W   100 KT
  36HR VT     14/1800Z 17.5N 114.5W   100 KT
  48HR VT     15/0600Z 17.5N 116.0W    95 KT
  72HR VT     16/0600Z 18.0N 119.0W    75 KT
  96HR VT     17/0600Z 18.5N 122.0W    50 KT
 120HR VT     18/0600Z 19.5N 125.0W    30 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB