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 752 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 120206
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042006
 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006
  
 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THE LARGE
 TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
 HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES TO BE DESIGNATED
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED
 ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT
 AND T1.5/25 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. IN ADDITION...AT
 12/00Z SHIPS A8AL6 AND SIWB REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 25 KT AND
 24 KT...RESPECTIVELY...IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT JUST SOUTH OF
 ACAPULCO MEXICO. SHIP SIWB ALSO REPORTED 11 FT SEA HEIGHTS.
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/11 KT IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE
 TO THE BROAD INNER-CORE WIND FIELD. THERE MAY BE SOME JUMPING
 AROUND OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT REFORMS NEAR ANY NEW CENTRAL
 CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER...THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS
 TIGHTLY PACKED ABOUT A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT
 THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO PARALLEL THE
 SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...BEFORE
 FINALLY TURNING MORE WESTWARD AND MOVING AWAY FROM THE MEXICAN
 COAST. AFTER 72 HOURS...THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY  WITH THE
 GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET MODELS TAKING THE CYCLONE SLOWLY
 NORTHWESTWARD... WHILE THE NOGAPS...CANADIAN...ECMWF...AND THE BAM
 MODELS FAVOR A FASTER WESTWARD MOTION. HOWEVER...SINCE ALL OF THE
 MODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
 IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND ERODE THE RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN
 130-150W LONGITUDE... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE
 GFS-GFDL-UKMET SOLUTION.
 
 THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS GOOD AND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
 THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY
 LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION NEAR MANZANILLO MEXICO IS
 FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD IN TANDEM WITH THE CYCLONE. THIS FEATURE
 SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
 DEPRESSION AND ALLOW FOR STEADY STRENGTHENING. THE ONLY HINDRANCES
 TO THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS APPEAR TO BE THE LARGE SIZE OF THE
 DISTURBANCE AND MUCH COOLER WATER THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING
 OVER AFTER 72 HOURS. IF MORE DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN THE INNER-
 CORE REGION DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...THEN THIS SYSTEM COULD
 BECOME STRONGER BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATER IN 72 HOURS.
 
 ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL
 OFFSHORE...A PUBLIC ADVISORY PRODUCT HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO
 BE ISSUED AS LONG AS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE
 FLOODING EXISTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/0300Z 14.4N 102.8W    30 KT
  12HR VT     12/1200Z 15.2N 104.7W    35 KT
  24HR VT     13/0000Z 16.0N 107.2W    45 KT
  36HR VT     13/1200Z 16.8N 109.6W    55 KT
  48HR VT     14/0000Z 17.4N 111.8W    65 KT
  72HR VT     15/0000Z 18.1N 115.4W    75 KT
  96HR VT     16/0000Z 19.5N 118.0W    60 KT
 120HR VT     17/0000Z 22.0N 120.0W    40 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 
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