330 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 170836
 TCDEP3
 
 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
 400 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015
 
 The satellite appearance of Carlos continues to rapidly deteriorate
 as the surface circulation separates further from the remaining
 less organized and shrinking deep convection.  Moderate northerly
 shear and mid to upper-level dry, stable, air penetrating the cloud
 pattern from western Mexico has more than likely been the
 contributing factor in the sudden weakening trend.  Small, compact,
 tropical cyclones such as Carlos are notorious for spinning down as
 quickly as they can rapidly intensify.  The initial intensity is
 lowered to 55 kt for this advisory and this could be generous given
 that the Dvorak technique has been known to be imprecise with small
 tropical cyclones.  The NHC forecast calls for rapid weakening
 through the period as the cyclone interacts with the mountainous
 terrain of western Mexico before moving back over water around the
 24 hour period.  The current forecast philosophy is that
 Carlos' circulation will have been severely disrupted by the time of
 its expected to move offshore and into the southern Gulf of
 California.  Thus, regeneration is unlikely and dissipation should
 occur in 48 hours or less.
 
 The initial motion is estimated to be around 330/6 kt.  The primary
 steering mechanism through the forecast period is the
 south-southeasterly low-level flow produced by high pressure to the
 east-northeast of the cyclone and a trough of low pressure extending
 southward from the Gulf of California.  The official forecast,
 which is nudged to the right of the previous forecast, is based
 primarily on a blend of the Florida State Superensemble, the GFS,
 and the shallow layer Beta and Advection Model (BAMS).
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  17/0900Z 19.0N 104.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  17/1800Z 19.8N 105.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  24H  18/0600Z 20.6N 105.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  18/1800Z 21.1N 106.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts