421 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 152056
 TCDEP3
 
 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
 400 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
 
 Earlier this afternoon, an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
 investigating Carlos found 700 mb flight-level winds of 69 kt along
 with SFMR surface winds of 64-67 kt in light rain areas. Two
 dropsondes released in the eyewall also reported surface winds of 62
 and 64 kt. Based on these wind data, the initial intensity of Carlos
 has been increased to 65 kt, making the cyclone a category 1
 hurricane once again.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 285/05 kt. The latest NHC model
 guidance has maintained a bifurcation in the track forecasts after
 36-48 hours. The UKMET, NAVGEM, HWRF, and the BAM models continue to
 take a significantly weaker cyclone off to the west, whereas the
 ECMWF and GFDL models, and now the GFS model as well, keep Carlos a
 little stronger and closer to the southwestern coast of Mexico.
 Given the relative weakness of the mid-level ridge to the north and
 northeast of Carlos, which is expected to further weaken as the
 large low pressure system currently located over the west-central
 Gulf of Mexico moves across Texas in 24-48 hours, a forecast track
 to the west-northwest and closer to the coast of Mexico is the
 preferred scenario at this time. The NHC official track forecast
 lies close to a blend of the ECMWF, FSSE, GFDL, and GFS forecast
 tracks. However, only a slight deviation to the right of the
 forecast track would bring Carlos inland along the southwestern
 coast of Mexico.
 
 The general trend in the models is for the vertical wind shear to
 continue to weaken to around 5 kt by 24 hours. The combination of
 light shear and warm SSTs of around 29C could result in some slight
 strengthening during the next day or so. However, given the compact
 nature of Carlos, any fluctuations in intensity should be
 short-lived, so the official forecast calls for a steady intensity
 during that time. By 72 hours, Carlos will be moving into
 unfavorable thermodynamic conditions and could also be interacting
 with the higher terrain of Mexico, resulting in the cyclone
 weakening to a tropical depression by 72 hours, and degenerating
 into a remnant low by 96 hours. Dissipation of the small storm is
 expected by 120 hrs, if not sooner. The intensity forecast is
 similar to the previous advisory and the LGEM model.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  15/2100Z 17.0N 103.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  16/0600Z 17.3N 103.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  24H  16/1800Z 17.9N 104.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  17/0600Z 18.6N 105.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  17/1800Z 19.5N 105.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  18/1800Z 21.0N 106.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  19/1800Z 22.0N 106.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  20/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart