094 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 150839
 TCDEP3
 
 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
 400 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015
 
 Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery shows that the cloud pattern of
 Carlos has diminished in size during the past 12 hours.
 A subsequent 0348 UTC ASCAT-B overpass also indicated a decrease in
 the overall extent of the tropical-storm-force winds.  The
 subjective or objective T-numbers for this advisory remain unchanged
 as well as the initial intensity of 60 kt, although this could be
 generous.  The intensity forecast remains quite uncertain,
 especially since the GFS continues to show Carlos dissipating over
 water and offshore of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico in less than 72 hours.
  On the other hand, the statistical-dynamical guidance continue to
 indicate gradual strengthening through 3 days before leveling off as
 a category 1 hurricane.  The NHC intensity forecast is a compromise
 of both solutions, showing slight restrengthening to a hurricane in
 24 hours.  Afterwards, gradual weakening into a depression is
 expected in 72 hours due to land interaction and an unfavorable
 thermodynamic environment.  Beyond the 72 hour period, the forecast
 calls for further weakening into a remnant low in 96 hours and
 dissipation at day 5.
 
 It appears as though Carlos is finally feeling the affects of the
 building mid-tropospheric ridge over central Mexico, and is now
 moving west-northwestward or 295/5 kt. The cyclone should continue
 on this track through the 36 hour period.  Afterwards, the dynamical
 models show a weakness developing in the ridge to the north of
 Carlos which should turn the system more northwestward and toward
 the coast of Mexico.  The official forecast reflects this expected
 change in the steering pattern.  The NHC forecast is again shifted
 to the left of the previous advisory and is weighed heavily on a
 blend of the GFS, ECMWF, and the Florida State Superensemble.
 
 An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate
 Carlos later today and should provide a good estimate of the
 intensity.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  15/0900Z 16.7N 101.8W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  15/1800Z 17.0N 102.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  16/0600Z 17.4N 103.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
  36H  16/1800Z 17.9N 104.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  17/0600Z 18.7N 105.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  72H  18/0600Z 20.7N 105.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  96H  19/0600Z 22.3N 106.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Roberts