540 
 WTPZ23 KNHC 150230
 TCMEP3
 
 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
 0300 UTC MON JUN 15 2015
 
 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
 THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH
 NORTHWESTWARD TO PLAYA PERULA.
 
 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * PUNTA SAN TELMO TO TECPAN DE GALEANA
 
 A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
 * WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA
 
 A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
 SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-
 STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
 DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
 SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
 A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
 SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
 INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
 MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS.
 
 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 101.3W AT 15/0300Z
 POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
 PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
 ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
 50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
 34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE  90SE  60SW  80NW.
 WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
 MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
 REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 101.3W AT 15/0300Z
 AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 101.1W
 
 FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.1N 102.1W
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
 34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.4N 103.0W
 MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
 50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.0N 104.0W
 MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 64 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
 50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.7N 104.7W
 MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
 FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 20.5N 105.5W...INLAND
 MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
 EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
 ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
 OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 22.0N 106.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
 OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 24.0N 107.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
 REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 101.3W
 
 NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA