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 091 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 130834
 TCDEP3
 
 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
 400 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015
 
 The overall structure of the cloud pattern has changed very little
 during the past several hours. One can still observe an intermittent
 ring of convection associated with the center of the cyclone on the
 Acapulco radar. However, Dvorak T-numbers and data from a recent
 ASCAT pass suggest that the winds are now up to 55 kt. The moderate
 northeasterly shear which is affecting the storm should begin to
 decrease in about 24 hours, allowing some strengthening. Although
 Carlos is forecast to be over relatively warm waters in 72 hours,
 but the shear will likely increase again. Consequently, most of the
 guidance weaken the cyclone after that time, and this is reflected
 in the NHC forecast.
 
 Carlos has been meandering for the past 24 hours or so, but it
 appears that it now moving toward the northwest or 315 degrees at
 2 kt.  Most of the global guidance show a ridge building over
 Mexico, and this pattern should steer Carlos slowly toward the
 northwest or west-northwest nearly parallel to the coast of
 Mexico during the next 3 days. After that time, a weakness in the
 ridge over the Baja California peninsula should allow Carlos to
 move on a more north-northwesterly track. The NHC forecast is
 similar to the previous one, and is in the middle of the guidance
 envelope. It is, however, a little bit to the left of the GFS/ECMWF
 consensus beyond 72 hours.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  13/0900Z 14.8N 100.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
  12H  13/1800Z 15.1N 100.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  14/0600Z 15.5N 101.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
  36H  14/1800Z 16.0N 102.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  15/0600Z 16.5N 103.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  16/0600Z 17.8N 105.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
  96H  17/0600Z 20.0N 106.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 120H  18/0600Z 21.5N 107.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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