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 593 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 111440
 TCDEP3
 
 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
 1000 AM CDT THU JUN 11 2015
 
 The organization of the tropical cyclone has gradually increased,
 with a curved band of deep convection wrapping more than half way
 around the system's center.  The intensity is analyzed to be 35 kt
 based upon a blend of TAFB, SAB, and ADT Dvorak estimates with
 consideration that the pattern recognition methods were apparently
 a bit biased high in comparison with the ASCAT scatterometer
 winds overnight.  Thus the system is upgraded to Carlos, the third
 tropical storm of the season in the Eastern North Pacific.
 
 Even though the cyclone is over very warm waters, Carlos is likely
 to continue to intensify at a moderate pace due to about 15 kt of
 northeasterly vertical shear expected during the next two to three
 days.  At the longer forecast times, the shear may decrease as
 Carlos approaches the axis of the upper-tropospheric ridge.
 However, a dry and more stable environment at that time may preclude
 substantial intensification.  Given that Carlos' track now is
 projected to remain away from the Mexican coast for at least
 the short-term, it is less likely that land influences will affect
 the system.  The official intensity forecast is based upon a blend
 of the LGEM and SHIPS statistical-dynamical models and is slightly
 lower than that from the previous advisory.
 
 Carlos is moving toward the northwest at about 5 kt.  Shortly, a
 developing trough over the Gulf of Mexico will cause the steering
 pattern to weaken and Carlos should meander northward for the
 next couple of days.  In three to four days, a deep-layered ridge
 will become re-established north of Carlos and help propel it
 northwest or west-northwestward at a slow forward speed,
 paralleling the southwestern Mexican coast.  The official track
 prediction is based upon the TVCN multi-model track consensus and
 is just slightly southwest of that from the previous advisory.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  11/1500Z 13.6N 100.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  12/0000Z 14.0N 100.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
  24H  12/1200Z 14.2N 100.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  13/0000Z 14.4N 100.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
  48H  13/1200Z 14.7N 100.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  14/1200Z 15.6N 101.7W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  15/1200Z 16.8N 104.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 120H  16/1200Z 17.7N 106.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Landsea
 
 
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