262 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 102035
 TCDEP3
 
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
 400 PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015
 
 Satellite imagery indicates that the deep convection associated
 with the low pressure system located southwest of the Gulf of
 Tehuantepec has become sufficiently well organized to designate the
 formation of a tropical depression.  Therefore, advisories are
 being initiated at this time.  The cyclone should remain in an
 environment of low vertical shear and over warm waters for the next
 several days, so steady strengthening seems to be a good bet.  The
 official wind speed forecast is generally above the intensity model
 consensus.  There is significant uncertainty in the longer range
 intensity forecast, depending on how much the system interacts with
 land.
 
 Center fixes have had a fair amount of scatter, and my best
 estimate of the initial motion is 315/8 kt.  During the next 72
 hours, the cyclone is likely to respond to a mid-level weakness over
 the Gulf of Mexico by turning northward and north-northeastward.
 Later in the forecast period, a mid-level ridge to the northwest is
 expected to cause the system to turn toward the west-northwest and
 move parallel the coast.  The GFS model takes the system close to
 the coast in 72 hours, but the ECMWF and GFDL model tracks keep the
 cyclone offshore and are much farther to the west than the GFS
 solution.  As a compromise, the official track forecast is close
 to the model consensus TVCN albeit not as far west as TVCN by 120
 hours.  Given the large divergence of the model tracks, this is a
 low confidence forecast.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  10/2100Z 12.4N  98.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  11/0600Z 13.0N  99.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  11/1800Z 13.4N  99.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
  36H  12/0600Z 14.0N  99.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  48H  12/1800Z 14.5N  99.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
  72H  13/1800Z 15.5N  99.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
  96H  14/1800Z 16.5N 100.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 120H  15/1800Z 17.5N 103.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
 $$
 Forecaster Pasch