675
WTPZ24 KNHC 150247
TCMEP4
HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009
0300 UTC WED JUL 15 2009
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 128.6W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 128.6W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 128.4W
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 10.3N 129.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 10.7N 131.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 11.1N 133.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 45NE 40SE 35SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 11.6N 135.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.0N 140.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 12.0N 146.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 12.0N 153.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.0N 128.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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