Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 263 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 150247
 TCDEP4
 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009
  
 THE EYE OF CARLOS HAS BECOME LESS DEFINED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS
 EVENING...BUT REMAINS VERY DISTINCT IN INFRARED IMAGES.  THE EYE
 HAS COOLED A LITTLE DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS...BUT SO HAS THE
 SURROUNDING RING OF COLD CLOUD TOPS.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 FROM BOTH AGENCIES SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO
 90 KT.
  
 WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT CARLOS IS APPROACHING AN
 AREA OF WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL
 INCREASE IN WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS BETWEEN 130W AND 140W DURING
 THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE ECMWF SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER
 200 MB FLOW IN THAT AREA THAN DOES THE GFS MODEL...WHICH THE
 SHIPS GUIDANCE USES FOR ITS SHEAR COMPUTATION.  THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/SHIPS SOLUTION AND FORECAST ONLY
 A SLIGHT DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  LATER
 IN THE PERIOD NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS PREDICTED TO INCREASE...WHICH
 SHOULD PRODUCE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING.  THE INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR
 TINY CARLOS HAVE PROVEN TO BE VERY CHALLENGING SO FAR.  IF THE
 SHEAR TURNS OUT TO BE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...THE SMALL HURRICANE
 WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY WEAKEN FASTER THAN SHOWN BELOW.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/6.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS
 THE HURRICANE ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD HEADING THROUGHOUT
 THE 5 DAY FORECAST PERIOD.  THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT
 DIFFERENCES IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE HURRICANE...WITH MOST OF THE
 GUIDANCE HAVING EXHIBITED A SIGNIFICANT WESTWARD BIAS THUS FAR.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT CARLOS WILL BE ABLE TO REMAIN A DEEP
 SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND IF THIS OCCURS IT WILL LIKELY
 CONTINUE TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY THAN THE GUIDANCE INDICATES.  SOME
 ACCELERATION WOULD BE EXPECTED WHENEVER CARLOS WEAKENS AND IS
 INCREASINGLY STEERED BY THE FASTER LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW.
  
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/0300Z 10.0N 128.6W    90 KT
  12HR VT     15/1200Z 10.3N 129.8W    85 KT
  24HR VT     16/0000Z 10.7N 131.4W    80 KT
  36HR VT     16/1200Z 11.1N 133.3W    75 KT
  48HR VT     17/0000Z 11.6N 135.6W    70 KT
  72HR VT     18/0000Z 12.0N 140.5W    60 KT
  96HR VT     19/0000Z 12.0N 146.5W    55 KT
 120HR VT     20/0000Z 12.0N 153.0W    50 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BROWN
  
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for CARLOS

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: Thu, Jul 23 2020 - 2003 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman