288 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 142036
 TCDEP4
 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2009
  
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CLOUD-FREE PINHOLE EYE FEATURE.
 ENHANCE BD INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE EYE HAS WARMED
 CONSIDERABLY SINCE THIS MORNING WITH COOLING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
 ASSOCIATED WITH THE INNER CORE EYEWALL CONVECTION.  BASED ON THIS
 RECENT CLOUD PATTERN DEVELOPMENT...AND AN INCREASING ADVANCED DVORAK
 TECHNIQUE T-NUMBER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT.
 
 THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
 AND FOLLOWS THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.  ALTHOUGH THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
 STRENGTH THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD...SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS ARE
 POSSIBLE IN THE SHORT TERM.  THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF
 THE FORECAST...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO INCREASING
 VERTICAL SHEAR.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7. CARLOS REMAINS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
 RIDGE...WITH A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AT THE LOW/MID-LEVELS TO
 THE EAST OF THE HURRICANE.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS GENERALLY
 AGREE ON CARLOS MOVING WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME
 ACCELERATION UNDER THE RIDGE...ALTHOUGH THERE CONTINUES TO BE A
 SPREAD IN HOW FAR NORTH THE CYCLONE COULD GET.  THE HWRF...GFDL...
 AND UKMET ARE STILL ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...
 WHILE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN ARE STILL ON THE NORTH SIDE.  THE NEW
 FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...DOWN THE
 MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
 CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/2100Z 10.0N 128.2W    85 KT
  12HR VT     15/0600Z 10.3N 129.3W    85 KT
  24HR VT     15/1800Z 10.7N 130.9W    85 KT
  36HR VT     16/0600Z 11.1N 132.7W    80 KT
  48HR VT     16/1800Z 11.5N 135.0W    75 KT
  72HR VT     17/1800Z 12.0N 140.0W    70 KT
  96HR VT     18/1800Z 12.0N 145.5W    60 KT
 120HR VT     19/1800Z 12.0N 152.0W    50 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN