992 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 121457
 TCDEP4
 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
 800 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2009
  
 INFRARED IMAGERY OF HURRICANE CARLOS DISPLAYS A MORE RAGGED
 APPEARANCE THIS MORNING. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
 TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 4.5...BUT ADT AND AMSU SUGGEST A SOMEWHAT
 WEAKER CYCLONE. BASED UPON THE CONTINUING DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD
 SIGNATURE SINCE SYNOPTIC TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 70
 KT.
 
 THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION ARE MODERATELY UNCERTAIN. THE
 CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OF CARLOS HAS OBSCURED ITS CENTER OVERNIGHT
 AND THE MICROWAVE SENSORS ABOARD THE POLAR-ORBITING SATELLITES HAVE
 RATHER ADROITLY MANAGED TO HAVE MISSED SEEING THE HURRICANE.
 INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/11. THE DOMINANT STEERING
 FEATURE IS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF CARLOS. THE RIDGE
 IS PROJECTED TO EXTEND FARTHER TO THE WEST AND SHOULD KEEP CARLOS
 ON A NEARLY DUE WESTWARD TRAJECTORY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
 TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
 NOGAPS MODEL TO THE NORTH. THIS MODEL MAY BE RESPONDING MORE
 SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE DEEP TROUGH NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BECAUSE
 OF ITS LARGER REPRESENTAION OF THE VORTEX. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
 CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LESS WEIGHT ON NOGAPS AND IS
 SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THE LATER TIME
 PERIODS.
 
 THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGERY IS SHOWING A BROADER...LESS WELL-DEFINED
 EYEWALL THAN WAS SEEN LATE YESTERDAY. DESPITE THIS...CARLOS HAS A
 LARGE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION AS IT MOVES
 ACROSS VERY WARM WATERS WITHIN A LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR
 THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS
 HAVE BACKED OFF FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND NONE NOW BRING CARLOS TO A
 MAJOR HURRICANE. AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...THE WESTERLY VERTICAL
 SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE...THE SSTS COOL...AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
 MORE STABLE ALONG THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE CYCLONE.
 CURIOUSLY...THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS SHOW ALMOST NO VERTICAL SHEAR
 REACHING CARLOS BY DAY FIVE...IN CONTRAST WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS.
 THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST THROUGH DAY THREE. AT THE LONGER LEAD TIMES...THE
 INTENSITY PREDICTION IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND BELOW THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/1500Z 10.4N 121.0W    70 KT
  12HR VT     13/0000Z 10.5N 122.7W    75 KT
  24HR VT     13/1200Z 10.7N 125.1W    85 KT
  36HR VT     14/0000Z 10.9N 127.3W    90 KT
  48HR VT     14/1200Z 11.2N 129.6W    90 KT
  72HR VT     15/1200Z 12.0N 134.0W    85 KT
  96HR VT     16/1200Z 13.0N 138.0W    75 KT
 120HR VT     17/1200Z 13.5N 142.5W    65 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN