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 172 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 112040
 TCDEP4
 HURRICANE CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
 200 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009
  
 SEVERAL MICROWAVE IMAGES EARLIER TODAY GAVE US THE INDICATION THAT
 AN EYEWALL WAS FORMING AND FINALLY A RAGGED EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME
 APPARENT IN VISIBLE IMAGES. THIS EYE IS BEING WRAPPED BY TWO
 COIL-SHAPED CONVECTIVE BANDS AND HAS BEEN VISIBLE INTERMITTENTLY.
 HOWEVER...THE STRUCTURE IN INFRARED IMAGES IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE
 AT THIS TIME. BOTH TAFB AND SAB ESTIMATES ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK
 SCALE AND THE 3-HOUR AVERAGE OBJECTIVE ADT NUMBER IS 4.0. SINCE
 THEN...THE EYE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED. GIVEN THE CURRENT
 ORGANIZATION AND THE DVORAK ESTIMATES...CARLOS IS BEING UPGRADED TO
 A 70-KNOT HURRICANE.
  
 THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT THREE
 DAYS AND THE OCEAN IS WARM IN THE DEEP TROPICAL PACIFIC ALONG THE
 PATH OF CARLOS. THEREFORE...A CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS
 FORECAST. HOWEVER...BEYOND 3 DAYS CARLOS WILL BEGIN APPROACHING
 HIGH-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A MID-OCEANIC
 TROUGH...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN SHEAR. A GRADUAL WEAKENING
 COULD THEN BEGIN. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL WHICH
 SHOWS WEAKENING BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
  
 CARLOS HAS BEEN MOVING ON A STEADY WESTWARD PATH ABOUT 270 DEGREES
 AT 10 KNOTS TODAY. THE STEERING FLOW SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
 IS WELL-ESTABLISHED AND IS NOT EXCEPTED TO CHANGE MUCH.
 THEREFORE...CARLOS SHOULD CONTINUE ON THIS GENERAL WEST TO
 WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...AS
 THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN A BETTER
 AGREEMENT IN THE LATEST RUN WITH MOST OF THE MODELS KEEPING CARLOS
 ON A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH FIVE DAYS...PERHAPS
 VARYING IN FORWARD SPEED BUT NOT BY MUCH.
    
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/2100Z 10.5N 117.7W    70 KT
  12HR VT     12/0600Z 10.7N 119.3W    75 KT
  24HR VT     12/1800Z 10.9N 121.7W    85 KT
  36HR VT     13/0600Z 11.0N 124.0W    85 KT
  48HR VT     13/1800Z 11.2N 126.5W    85 KT
  72HR VT     14/1800Z 12.0N 131.0W    85 KT
  96HR VT     15/1800Z 12.5N 136.0W    80 KT
 120HR VT     16/1800Z 13.5N 141.0W    70 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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