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 668 
 WTPZ44 KNHC 111437
 TCDEP4
 TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 11 2009
  
 THE BANDING FEATURES PREVIOUSLY OBSERVED ARE CURRENTLY LESS DISTINCT
 BUT THE CENTER IS NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG CENTRAL DENSE
 OVERCAST. DURING THE TIME OF THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATION AT 1200
 UTC...THE PATTERN WAS A LITTLE RAGGED AND THE T-NUMBER CAME DOWN TO
 3.0.  SINCE THEN...THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
 SYMMETRIC SUPPORTING A CONTINUATION OF A 55-KT INITIAL INTENSITY. IN
 FACT...THE FIRST VISIBLE IMAGE OF THE DAY...JUST RECEIVED...SHOWS
 THAT AN EYEWALL COULD BE FORMING.  
 
 THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR IS VERY LIGHT ALONG THE
 FORECAST PATH OF CARLOS UNTIL IT INCREASES AT THE END OF THE
 PERIOD. BY THEN...THE OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO BE COOLER.
 THEREFORE...INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AND CARLOS SHOULD BECOME A
 HURRICANE LATER TODAY AND REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY IN TWO OR THREE
 DAYS BEFORE IT ENCOUNTERS THE LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. BOTH GFDL
 AND HWRF KEEP CARLOS AS A 80 TO 90 KT HURRICANE.
  
 CARLOS HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS
 DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...WITH THE EXPANSION OF THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...CARLOS SHOULD
 CONTINUE ON A GENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK ABOUT 10 TO 12
 KNOTS THROUGH FIVE DAYS. BECAUSE THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES AMONG
 GLOBAL MODELS IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...TRACK
 GUIDANCE IS NOT AS TIGHT AS IT WAS YESTERDAY BEYOND 3 DAYS. AN
 OVERALL WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH A SMALL INCREASE IN
 FORWARD SPEED IS STILL THE MOST FAVORITE MODEL SOLUTION.
  
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/1500Z 10.4N 116.6W    55 KT
  12HR VT     12/0000Z 10.4N 118.4W    65 KT
  24HR VT     12/1200Z 10.5N 120.8W    70 KT
  36HR VT     13/0000Z 10.7N 123.3W    75 KT
  48HR VT     13/1200Z 11.0N 126.0W    80 KT
  72HR VT     14/1200Z 11.5N 131.0W    85 KT
  96HR VT     15/1200Z 12.0N 136.0W    85 KT
 120HR VT     16/1200Z 13.0N 141.0W    80 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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