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 064 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 082038
 TCDEP3
  
 HURRICANE CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032011
 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 08 2011
  
 ALTHOUGH THE AREA OF CONVECTION IS NOT AS LARGE AS IT WAS ONE OR TWO
 HOURS AGO...CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES AS WELL AS MICROWAVE DATA
 HAVE BEEN SHOWING AN INTERMITTENT EYE FEATURE. BASED ON THE CURRENT
 CLOUD PATTERN AND THE INCREASE IN THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS SINCE THIS
 MORNING...CALVIN HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO HURRICANE STATUS WITH AN
 INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
 CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER COOLER WATER WHERE THE CONVECTION HAS
 BEGUN TO WEAKEN. IT APPEARS THAT CALVIN HAS REACHED ITS PEAK
 INTENSITY AND ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
 INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR
 CALVIN TO WEAKEN.
  
 CALVIN HAS SLOWED DOWN A LITTLE AND IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR
 275 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT FORECAST TO
 CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON A
 GENERAL WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH AN ADDITIONAL DECREASE IN
 FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...CALVIN IS
 EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW WHICH WILL PROBABLY
 BEGIN TO MEANDER EMBEDDED WITHIN A MUCH WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW.
 TRACK MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOVING CALVIN ON A
 GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS BUT VARY
 SIGNIFICANTLY IN FORWARD SPEED THEREAFTER. HOWEVER...BY THEN CALVIN
 IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER SYSTEM.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  08/2100Z 16.3N 108.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
  12H  09/0600Z 16.4N 110.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  24H  09/1800Z 17.0N 112.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
  36H  10/0600Z 17.5N 113.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
  48H  10/1800Z 18.0N 114.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
  72H  11/1800Z 19.0N 117.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  12/1800Z 19.5N 118.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA
  
 
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