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 929 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 081459
 TCDEP3
  
 TROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032011
 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 08 2011
  
 THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE OF CALVIN HAS IMPROVED AS AN EYE-LIKE
 FEATURE IS EVIDENT FROM BOTH THE 1136Z SSMI IMAGERY AND THE FIRST
 VISIBLE IMAGES THIS MORNING. THE TAFB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS
 A 3.5...OR 55 KT...AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE SUGGESTS A
 3.7...OR 59 KT AT SYNOPTIC TIME. WITH IMPROVED SUBSEQUENT
 ORGANIZATION...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KT. CALVIN HAS A
 LIMITED TIME FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...AS IT IS ABOUT TO REACH
 THE COOL SSTS AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. SO
 DESPITE THE MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR ANTICIPATED TO RELAX OVER THE
 NEXT FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE IS PROJECTED TO PEAK IN ABOUT 12 HOURS
 AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE
 FORECAST INTENSITY IS MOST SIMILAR TO THE LGEM AND SHIPS MODELS IN
 THE SHORT TERM...AND TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE STATISTICAL AND
 DYNAMICAL MODELS AFTER 24 HOURS.
  
 CALVIN HAS ACCELERATED TOWARD THE WEST AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING ABOUT
 15 KT...PRIMARILY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTH
 OF THE CYCLONE. DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS...CALVIN SHOULD SLOW AND
 MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
 OF THE RIDGE. AFTER TWO DAYS...THE DECAYING CYCLONE WILL BE STEERED
 WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS
 CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MINUS THE GFDN
 MODEL...WHICH TAKES THE CYCLONE ALMOST IMMEDIATELY TOWARD THE
 NORTHEAST. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER AND SOUTH OF THE
 PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD POSITION THAN ANTICIPATED
 AT THE INITIAL TIME.
  
 THE 34 KT WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED OUTWARD BASED UPON A CIRA
 ANALYSIS OF THE 0933Z AMSU PASS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  08/1500Z 16.2N 107.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
  12H  09/0000Z 16.6N 109.4W   70 KT  80 MPH
  24H  09/1200Z 17.2N 111.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
  36H  10/0000Z 17.7N 112.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
  48H  10/1200Z 18.3N 114.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
  72H  11/1200Z 19.5N 116.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  96H  12/1200Z 20.0N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 120H  13/1200Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA
  
 
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