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 080 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 151437
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Depression Bud Discussion Number  24
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
 900 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018
 
 Bud's satellite presentation consists of a swirl of low-level
 clouds with the limited deep convection displaced in a band well to
 the northwest of the center.  Assuming gradual weakening since the
 ASCAT passes overnight, the initial intensity is set to 30 kt, with
 those winds likely found over the Gulf of California to the east of
 the center.  The shear is expected to remain strong through
 landfall, and the cyclone should become a remnant low by 12 hours
 and then dissipate over the high terrain of the state of Sonora by
 early Saturday.
 
 The initial motion estimate is 360/10, and Bud should continue
 moving northward through dissipation between a mid-level ridge
 to the cyclone's east and an approaching longwave trough to its
 west.
 
 Although the low-level circulation of Bud is expected to dissipate
 on Saturday, the associated remnant moisture plume is expected to
 spread northward and northeastward into northwestern Mexico and the
 southwest U.S. through Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall
 and possible flash flooding across those areas. For further
 information on the heavy rainfall threat, please see products issued
 by your local weather service office.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  15/1500Z 25.3N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  16/0000Z 27.2N 109.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  24H  16/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Brennan/McElroy
 
 
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