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 308 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 150835
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number  23
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
 300 AM MDT Fri Jun 15 2018
 
 The effect of the terrain of Baja California Sur and the increasing
 shear is disrupting Bud's structure. Water vapor images show a
 mid-level center moving fast to the northeast, while low cloud
 motions as well as surface observations indicate that the low-level
 center has been left behind over or near Baja.  The low-level
 circulation is becoming elongated with most of the rain and weak
 convective bands displaced well to the northeast over the Gulf of
 California and northwestern Mexico.  An earlier ASCAT pass showed a
 few 35-kt wind vectors within a very small area over water to the
 east of the center. On this basis, the initial intensity is kept
 at 35 kt in this advisory. Given the hostile environment, weakening
 is anticipated, and Bud is forecast to become a remnant low in about
 24 hours, and then dissipate over the high terrain of the state of
 Sonora.
 
 Now that the low-level center is becoming elongated, the initial
 motion is more difficult to ascertain. The best estimate is toward
 the north or 355 degrees at 11 kt. The cyclone is already embedded
 within the southerly flow along the western side of a high
 pressure ridge.  This persistent pattern should steer Bud toward the
 north until dissipation. The NHC forecast is basically on top of the
 multi-model consensus.
 
 Since the tropical-storm-force winds are limited to a small area to
 the east of the center, the Government of Mexico discontinued the
 watches and warnings for Baja California Sur, and kept the watch for
 a portion of the mainland.
 
 Although Bud is expected to weaken, the associated remnant moisture
 plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into
 northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest today and on
 Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash
 flooding across those areas.  For further information on the heavy
 rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather
 service office.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  15/0900Z 24.6N 110.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  15/1800Z 26.2N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  16/0600Z 29.5N 109.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  36H  16/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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