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 902 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 150240
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number  22
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
 900 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018
 
 Bud is skirting the southern coast of the Baja California
 Peninsula.  There have been a few observations of tropical-storm-
 force winds near Cabo San Lucas earlier this evening.  Since that
 time, the increasing interaction with the terrain of southern Baja
 California Sur has likely decreased its intensity slightly. In
 addition, convection is limited to a curved band that is about 100 n
 mi north of the center.  Thus the initial intensity is lowered to 35
 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak CI-number from TAFB.
 
 After moving just west of due north for much of the day, Bud has
 made a jog to the north-northeast over the past few hours.  This has
 delayed landfall over southern Baja California Sur this evening.
 Track guidance remains in excellent agreement on Bud resuming a
 north-northwestward track over the next 12 hours, taking the center
 across the southern Baja California Sur overnight. Bud is then
 expected to gradually accelerate as it turns northward and then
 north-northeastward on Friday over the central Gulf of California
 as it moves around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. Bud
 is then expected to make a second landfall over the Mexican state of
 Sonora by Friday evening.
 
 The storm should maintain its intensity overnight as the interaction
 with Baja California Sur is offset by the warmer waters of the Gulf
 of California, with these warmer waters likely supporting convective
 bands in the northeast quadrant. In addition, funneling in the
 Gulf of California could cause Bud to maintain tropical storm
 status for a little longer.  By 24 hours, interaction with the
 terrain of mainland Mexico should cause Bud to weaken to a tropical
 depression before landfall over Sonora.  Thereafter, the high
 terrain of mainland Mexico should cause Bud to become a remnant low
 by 36 hours, and dissipate by 48 hours, if not sooner.
 
 Although Bud is expected to weaken, the associated remnant moisture
 plume is expected to spread northward and northeastward into
 northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and
 Saturday, resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash
 flooding across those areas.  For further information on the heavy
 rainfall threat, please see products issued by your local weather
 service office.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  15/0300Z 23.1N 109.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  15/1200Z 24.6N 109.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  16/0000Z 27.0N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  16/1200Z 29.8N 109.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  48H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto
 
 
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