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 285 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 142059
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number  21
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
 300 PM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018
 
 Satellite imagery and scatterometer wind data indicate that Bud's
 wind field and convective pattern have changed little during the
 past 6 hours. Some new modest convective banding has developed in
 the inner-core region, but overall cloud pattern remains primarily
 a large swirl of low clouds. Some of the convective bands in the
 northern semicircle have been bringing stronger winds aloft based
 on surface obs Mexican Navy automated weather station in the port of
 Cabo San Lucas where sustained winds of 50 kt and a gust to 60 kt
 have been observed. However, those winds may have been enhanced by
 local terrain. Closer to the surface, a Mexican CONAGUA weather
 station in Cabo San Lucas recently reported a sustained wind of 34
 kt and a gust to 41 kt. Based on these data, Bud's intensity remains
 at 40 kt.
 
 Bud has maintained a steady motion of 345/06 kt. No changes were
 required to the previous forecast track. The model guidance remains
 in excellent agreement that Bud should turn northward by 12 h while
 crossing over the southern Baja California peninsula, and emerge
 over the warmer waters of the Gulf of California by Friday
 afternoon. As the cyclone rounds the western periphery of a large
 subtropical ridge oriented east-to-west across north-central Mexico,
 a turn toward the north-northeast and northeast is anticipated by
 36 hours and beyond. The new NHC advisory track is similar to the
 previous forecast track, and remains near the eastern edge of the
 model guidance suite.
 
 Bud's intensity will likely change little during the next 12 hours
 or so. By 24 hours, however, interaction with the mountainous
 terrain of southern Baja California should disrupt the circulation,
 inducing a steady weakening of the wind field. Due to the waters of
 the Gulf of California being around 27 deg C, some convective
 banding could persist in the northeastern quadrant and some
 enhancement of wind flow in the northeastern quadrant due to
 funneling could occur. For those reasons, Bud has been maintained as
 a tropical depression until the second landfall occurs in about 30
 hours. After landfall, rapid weakening and dissipation by 48 hours
 is expected over the high terrain of mainland Mexico.
 
 Despite weakening or dissipation, Bud's remnant moisture plume is
 expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern
 Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday,
 resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across
 those areas.  For further information on the heavy rainfall threat,
 please see products issued by your local weather service office.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  14/2100Z 22.2N 109.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  15/0600Z 23.5N 110.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
  24H  15/1800Z 25.6N 110.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...OVER WATER
  36H  16/0600Z 28.0N 110.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
  48H  16/1800Z 30.3N 109.6W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  72H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Stewart
 
 
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