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 WTPZ43 KNHC 141453
 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number  20
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
 900 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018
 Bud's overall structure and convective pattern have changed little
 since the previous advisory, with the tropical storm consisting of
 mainly a large swirl of low clouds and fragmented cyclonically
 curved bands of moderate convection. Despite this unimpressive
 satellite appearance, Bud is still producing tropical-storm-force
 winds in the the convective band in the northern semicircle. A
 Mexican Navy automated weather station in the port of Cabo San Lucas
 recently reported a 2-minute average wind of 39 kt and a gust to 53
 kt, and also reported 36-kt winds for a 5-minute period shortly
 after 1200 UTC. The observing site has also recorded a pressure of
 1004.5 mb thus far. Based on these wind data, the initial intensity
 is being maintained at 40 kt for this advisory, and the central
 pressure is estimated to be 1000 mb.
 Bud has a broad inner-core wind field and a small-scale vortex has
 been rotating counter-clockwise within the larger cyclonic gyre.
 After smoothing through all the wobbles of the center, a motion
 of 345/06 kt is computed over the past 18 hours. No significant
 changes were made to the previous track forecast. The model guidance
 is tightly packed around the previous advisory track and remains in
 excellent agreement that Bud will gradually turn northward during
 the next 36 hours around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge
 located across north-central Mexico. A turn toward the
 north-northeast is expected by 48 hours as the steering flow becomes
 more southwesterly ahead of an approaching mid-level trough, which
 will also act to accelerate Bud. The new NHC forecast track is just
 a tad to the west of the previous track through 24 hours, and lies
 along the eastern edge of the guidance envelope.
 During the next 24 hours, Bud will be moving over cool waters and
 interacting with the mountainous terrain of southern Baja
 California, which should result in a gradual erosion of the deep
 convection and spin down of the circulation. Some enhanced wind flow
 in the northeastern quadrant due to funneling between Bud's center
 and the higher terrain of mainland Mexico is possible once Bud's
 center emerges over the Gulf of California in 24 hours. For that
 reason, Bud is being maintained as a tropical depression until the
 second landfall occurs in about 36 hours. After landfall, rapid
 weakening and dissipation by 48 hours is expected over the high
 terrain of mainland Mexico.
 Despite weakening or dissipation, Bud's remnant moisture plume is
 expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern
 Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday,
 resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across
 those areas.  For further information on the heavy rainfall threat,
 please see products issued by your local weather service office.
 INIT  14/1500Z 21.7N 109.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  15/0000Z 22.8N 109.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
  24H  15/1200Z 24.6N 110.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  16/0000Z 27.0N 110.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  16/1200Z 29.4N 110.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  72H  17/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 Forecaster Stewart
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