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 439 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 140837
 TCDEP3
 
 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number  19
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032018
 300 AM MDT Thu Jun 14 2018
 
 Bud consists of a broad area of circulation, mostly of low clouds,
 and a cyclonically curved band of weak to moderate convection to the
 north of the center. Both objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers
 from all agencies have continued to decrease, and on this basis, the
 initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt in this advisory. No ASCAT
 data is available over Bud tonight.
 
 The cyclone is moving over cool waters, the shear is forecast to
 increase, and the circulation will be over the high terrain of Baja
 California Sur for about 12 hours. All these factors are for Bud to
 continue weakening, and perhaps this could occur even faster than
 indicated in the forecast.
 
 Bud has not changed in track and is still moving north-northwestward
 at 6 kt along the on the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over
 Mexico and the southwestern U.S.  The southerly flow ahead of an
 approaching mid-level trough will steer Bud northward with some
 increase in forward speed during the next day or two. The NHC
 forecast is in the middle of the tight guidance envelope through 48
 hours. After that time, the model trackers no longer depict the
 cyclone.
 
 Despite weakening or dissipation, Bud's remnant moisture plume is
 expected to spread northward and northeastward into northwestern
 Mexico and the U.S. Desert Southwest on Friday and Saturday,
 resulting in significant rainfall and possible flash flooding across
 those areas.  For further information on the heavy rainfall threat,
 please see products issued by your local weather service office.
 
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
 INIT  14/0900Z 21.3N 109.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
  12H  14/1800Z 22.3N 109.7W   40 KT  45 MPH
  24H  15/0600Z 23.8N 110.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  15/1800Z 26.0N 110.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
  48H  16/0600Z 28.5N 110.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
  72H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 $$
 Forecaster Avila
 
 
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