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 454 
 WTPZ42 KNHC 260843
 TCDEP2
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP022012
 200 AM PDT SAT MAY 26 2012
  
 THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
 HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON BUD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. NO DEEP
 CONVECTION HAS BEEN PRESENT SINCE ABOUT 00Z AND DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES HAVE BEEN DROPPING AS QUICKLY AS CONSTRAINTS ALLOW. A
 FORTUITOUS ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS AT 0405Z INDICATED THAT THE
 CENTER OF BUD WAS EITHER INLAND OVER MEXICO OR VERY CLOSE TO THE
 COAST AND THAT WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE WERE 25 KT AT
 MOST. ADDITIONALLY...THE PRESSURE AT PUERTO VALLARTA HAS BEEN
 RISING DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...DESPITE BUD MOVING WITHIN ABOUT
 40 NM OF THE CITY. THUS WHILE BUD WAS LIKELY STILL A MINIMAL
 TROPICAL STORM AT 06Z...THE CYCLONE IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
 DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. FURTHER WEAKENING TO A REMNANT LOW IS
 INDICATED BY ALL STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHORTLY.
 
 THE CURRENT MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 350/5 AS THE LAST RELIABLE CENTER
 FIX WAS FROM A 0026Z SSMIS IMAGE FROM THE NRL WEBSITE. THE
 SOON-TO-BE REMNANT LOW OF BUD SHOULD DRIFT NORTHWARD BEFORE
 STALLING AND DISSIPATING WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  IT IS OF NOTE
 THAT ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW THAT BUD LIKELY HAS DECOUPLED
 AND THAT THE MID-LEVEL VORTEX IS NOW DISPLACED INLAND WELL EAST OF
 THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  26/0900Z 20.3N 105.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  26/1800Z 20.7N 105.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  24H  27/0600Z 20.7N 106.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  36H  27/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER LANDSEA/BRENNAN
  
 
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