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 174 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 150831
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
 200 AM PDT SAT JUL 15 2006
 
 BUD CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN OVER 22-23 DEG C WATERS.  THERE
 ARE STILL SOME SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
 CIRCULATION...BUT NONE OF THE CONVECTION IS VERY DEEP.  THE HIGHEST
 UNCONTAMINATED WIND SPEEDS FROM A 0320 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS WERE
 30-35 KT.  BUD HAS PROBABLY WEAKENED A LITTLE FURTHER SINCE THE
 TIME OF THOSE OBSERVATIONS...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 30
 KT....WHICH DOWNGRADES THE SYSTEM TO DEPRESSION STATUS.  THE
 CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER COOL WATERS AND THEREFORE IT IS FORECAST
 TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN A DAY OR SO.  NONE OF THE
 GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION AFTER 48 HOURS SO THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES THAT THE LOW WILL DISSIPATE OR BECOME
 AN OPEN WAVE BY HOUR 72.
 
 INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...280/13...IS SIMILAR TO THAT USED IN THE
 PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  NOT MUCH CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE NHC
 FORECAST ON THIS ADVISORY.  A MAINLY  WESTWARD TRACK IS ANTICIPATED
 AS BUD...OR ITS REMNANT...CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL
 EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/0900Z 20.4N 131.4W    30 KT
  12HR VT     15/1800Z 20.6N 133.5W    30 KT
  24HR VT     16/0600Z 20.9N 136.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     16/1800Z 21.0N 138.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     17/0600Z 21.0N 141.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH
  
 
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