Image Department Meteorology
Meteorology_Home Weather_Server News/Seminars
People
Research
Academics Application Contact_Us

Hawaiian_Weather
US_Mainland_Weather
Tropical_Weather
Satellite_Imagery
Radar_Imagery
Marine
Numerical_Models
LAPS
Forecasts
Observations
Archive
Links Disclaimer
Space
SOEST_Home
University_of_Hawaii_Home

 926 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 150242
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  18...CORRECTED
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006
 
 ...CORRECTED TO ADD TRACK IN LAST SENTENCE...
  
 THIS EVENING'S SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SMALL PATCH OF CONVECTION
 LINGERING APPROXIMATELY 40 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION
 CENTER. VISIBLE ANIMATION REVEALS STABLE MARINE LAYER
 STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH
 PORTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. BESIDES THE COOLER
 SSTS...A BIT OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ALSO APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING
 BUD. BASED ON THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT AND
 THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW LEFT OVER 35 KT WINDS WITHIN THE NORTH
 QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT. 
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS 280 AT 14 KT. BUD IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN A
 GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN
 THE LOW LAYER FLOW OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ALL OF THE AVAILABLE
 MODELS...INCLUDING THE GFDL AND THE GFDN...INDICATE THAT BUD WILL
 OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH BY DAY 4. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT
 WITH DISSIPATION AT THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF
 THE MODELS. AS A RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FEATURE...THE
 NOGAPS...GFS...AND CMC SUGGEST A TRACK JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
 ISLANDS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE UKMET DISSIPATES THE TROUGH
 BEFORE REACHING THE ISLANDS AND THE ECMWF AND GFDL INDICATE A TRACK
 SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      15/0300Z 20.1N 130.0W    35 KT
  12HR VT     15/1200Z 20.2N 131.8W    30 KT
  24HR VT     16/0000Z 20.4N 134.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     16/1200Z 20.5N 136.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     17/0000Z 20.5N 139.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     18/0000Z 20.5N 145.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
  
 
Return to the Tropical Systems Page for BUD

Back to main Tropical Weather page




This page is maintained voluntarily by the MKWC and the UHMET faculty, staff, and students.
It was last modified on: , 17 2014 - 1841 UTC
Send comments to: Ryan Lyman