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 964 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 142032
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006
  
 WITH THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF COLD SSTS...STABLE AIR AND MODERATE
 SOUTHERLY SHEAR...BUD IS LIGHT ON DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DROP QUICKLY WITH CURRENT VALUES OF 45-55 KT
 AND DATA T-NUMBERS OF 30-35 KT. INTENSITY IS ANALYZED AT 40 KT.
 TROPICAL STORM BUD'S TRACK IS NOW CLOSER TO A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY
 AT ABOUT 12 KT.
  
 BUD SHOULD CONTINUE WESTWARD...STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
 ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC HIGH. THE TRACK FORECAST
 FOLLOWS CLOSELY THE GFSI AND GFDI MODELS WHICH SHOW A GOOD
 REPRESENTATION OF THE WEAKENING CYCLONE. BUD SHOULD CONTINUE TO
 UNWIND AND LIKELY WILL DROP BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE SHORTLY.  A
 REMNANT NON-CONVECTIVE LOW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH FIVE
 DAYS OR LESS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS AND GFDI.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/2100Z 19.8N 128.5W    40 KT
  12HR VT     15/0600Z 20.2N 130.5W    30 KT
  24HR VT     15/1800Z 20.4N 133.1W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  36HR VT     16/0600Z 20.5N 135.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     16/1800Z 20.6N 138.1W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     17/1800Z 20.5N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     18/1800Z 20.0N 150.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     19/1800Z 20.0N 155.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
  
 
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