109 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 141429
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 14 2006
  
 BUD IS QUICKLY WEAKENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COLD SSTS AND A
 STABLE AIRMASS.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65-77
 KT...BUT ARE CONSTRAINED BY THE DVORAK RULES.  DATA T-NUMBERS
 SUGGEST A SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER SYSTEM. INTENSITY IS ANALYZED TO BE
 55 KT...THOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS GIVEN THE NEAR LACK OF
 CONVECTION. THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES ITS STRAIGHT TRACK TO THE
 WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND 13 KT.
  
 AS BUD IS NOW BEING STEERED BY THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW...A BUILDING
 LOWER TROPOSPHERIC HIGH SHOULD TURN THE STORM BACK TO THE WEST IN
 ABOUT 36 HOURS AND PERHAPS A WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY TRAJECTORY AT DAYS
 FOUR AND FIVE.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE COLD 22 C WATERS AND STABLE
 AIR...BUD WILL LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT A DAY AND A
 HALF AND MAY NOT EXIST AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
 RELIES HEAVILY UPON SHIPS AND GFDI...BUT IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS
 THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE WHICH DISSIPATES BUD ALMOST IMMEDIATELY.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/1500Z 19.7N 127.1W    55 KT
  12HR VT     15/0000Z 20.1N 129.2W    40 KT
  24HR VT     15/1200Z 20.5N 131.9W    30 KT
  36HR VT     16/0000Z 20.8N 134.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  48HR VT     16/1200Z 21.0N 137.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  72HR VT     17/1200Z 21.0N 142.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     18/1200Z 20.5N 148.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     19/1200Z 20.0N 154.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA