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 893 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 140237
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
 800 PM PDT THU JUL 13 2006
  
 THIS EVENING'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION REVEALS A CONTINUED WEAKENING
 TREND FOR BUD. THE EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED AND CORE CONVECTION
 CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE
 FROM 90 TO 102 KT WITH THE T NUMBERS AND ODT DROPPING TO 77 AND 67
 KT RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY DECREASED TO 85 KT AS A
 COMPROMISE. THE NCEP/MMAB DAILY HIGH RESOLUTION SEA SURFACE
 TEMPERATURE ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING
 OVER A TONGUE OF COOLER WATER WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 20
 TO 23 CELSIUS. COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A LESS FAVORABLE
 AIR MASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO AFFECT BUD...ULTIMATELY REDUCING THE
 TROPICAL CYCLONE INTO A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS BY THE 72 HOUR PERIOD.
 A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT BUD WILL WEAKEN BELOW
 DEPRESSION STRENGTH OR ACTUALLY DISSIPATE IN 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
 FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO THE SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS. 
  
 INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KT. HURRICANE BUD IS
 TRACKING WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
 RIDGE. GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL SUGGEST A CONTINUED
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS. AFTERWORDS...BUD IS
 EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW TO MID-LAYER STEERING FLOW
 AS A REMNANT LOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
 ONE...BUT SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      14/0300Z 18.9N 124.6W    85 KT
  12HR VT     14/1200Z 19.6N 126.5W    65 KT
  24HR VT     15/0000Z 20.5N 129.0W    50 KT
  36HR VT     15/1200Z 21.2N 131.6W    35 KT
  48HR VT     16/0000Z 21.6N 134.3W    30 KT
  72HR VT     17/0000Z 22.0N 139.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     18/0000Z 22.0N 144.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     19/0000Z 22.0N 149.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
  
 
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