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 663 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 132035
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
 200 PM PDT THU JUL 13 2006
  
 BUD CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH MOST OF THE
 COLD CLOUD TOPS ON THE SOUTHEAST SIDE...THOUGH A RAGGED EYE REMAINS
 VISIBLE.  SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO
 90-102 KT.  THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 95 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE
 SOMEWHAT GENEROUS.  A 1339Z QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE
 TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND AT MOST 60 NMI FROM THE
 CENTER...SO THE WIND RADII ARE ADJUSTED INWARD. THE HURRICANE'S
 MOVEMENT CONTINUES ALONG A REGULAR WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AT ABOUT 15
 KT.
 
 BUD IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE.  A
 BREAK IN THE RIDGE AT 130 W IS ANTICIPATED TO FILL AS A SHORT WAVE
 TROUGH PUSHES NORTHEASTWARD...SO THE HURRICANE IS NOT LIKELY TO
 TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS...SOME OF THE
 GUIDANCE LOSES THE VORTEX AFTER A DAY OR TWO. THE REMAINING MODELS
 SUGGEST A BEND BACK TOWARD THE WEST AFTER 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM
 BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH 48 HOURS. THEREAFTER...
 THE FORECAST IS SOUTH OF CONSENSUS AS THE NOGAPS CONTRIBUTION IS
 DOWNPLAYED. THE NOGAPS APPEARS TO HAVE A LARGER THAN EXPECTED
 TROPICAL CYCLONE VORTEX FROM THREE TO FIVE DAYS ALLOWING IT TO BE
 PULLED TOO FAR TO THE NORTH. BUD'S INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE
 DROPPING QUICKLY AS IT PROGRESSES OVER COLDER WATERS AND INCREASING
 VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. BUD SHOULD
 BECOME A REMNANT NON-CONVECTIVE LOW IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.
  
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/2100Z 18.4N 123.3W    95 KT
  12HR VT     14/0600Z 19.2N 125.4W    75 KT
  24HR VT     14/1800Z 20.3N 128.3W    55 KT
  36HR VT     15/0600Z 21.2N 131.1W    40 KT
  48HR VT     15/1800Z 22.0N 133.8W    30 KT
  72HR VT     16/1800Z 22.5N 139.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     17/1800Z 22.5N 144.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     18/1800Z 22.0N 148.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
  
 
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