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 114 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 131438
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
 800 AM PDT THU JUL 13 2006
  
 BUD'S APPEARANCE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAKENING TREND WITH
 WARMING CLOUD TOPS BUT THE EYE STILL REMAINS DISTINCT IN THE
 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGE
 BETWEEN 102 AND 115 KT AT 12Z...THOUGH ODT WAS ABOUT 90 KT AND AMSU
 SUGGESTS WINDS AS LOW AS 82 KT.  INTENSITY IS THUS DROPPED TO 100
 KT.  THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
 ABOUT 15 KT.
 
 BUD IS MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE. 
 ALTHOUGH A BREAK IN THE RIDGE EXISTS AROUND 130-140 W...BUD IS NOT
 LIKELY TO BE DEEP ENOUGH IN TWO DAYS TO MAKE THE TURN TO THE NORTH. 
 ALL GUIDANCE EXCEPT THE GFS TRACKS BUD TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR 36
 HOURS THEN TURNS IT TOWARD THE WEST AND EVEN THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
 120 HOURS.  THE GFS TOO QUICKLY LOSES THE VORTEX AND PICKS UP ON A
 DIFFERENT DISTURBANCE AFTER 24 HOURS.  THUS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 TRACK IS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS WHICH
 INCLUDES THE GFS.  FOR INTENSITY...BUD SHOULD BEGIN A QUICK DECLINE
 SINCE IT IS CURRENTLY OVER 25C SSTS AND WILL DROP TO 22C WITHIN
 24-36 HOURS.  SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD ALSO INCREASE AS
 BUD MOVES CLOSER TO THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL
 INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS SHIPS GUIDANCE PRIMARILY BUT IT IS
 SOMEWHAT MORE AGGRESSIVE IN WEAKENING...AS SUGGESTED BY THE FSU
 SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND THE EXPERIMENTAL SHIPS-LGE MODEL.  BUD IS
 PREDICTED TO DROP BELOW HURRICANE FORCE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND
 CONTINUE WEAKENING THEREAFTER.
 
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/1500Z 17.9N 122.0W   100 KT
  12HR VT     14/0000Z 19.0N 124.2W    90 KT
  24HR VT     14/1200Z 20.1N 127.0W    70 KT
  36HR VT     15/0000Z 21.0N 129.8W    55 KT
  48HR VT     15/1200Z 21.5N 132.3W    40 KT
  72HR VT     16/1200Z 22.0N 138.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  96HR VT     17/1200Z 22.0N 142.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     18/1200Z 21.5N 146.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER AVILA/LANDSEA
  
 
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