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 828 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 130858
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
 200 AM PDT THU JUL 13 2006
  
 BUD HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT. THE HURRICANE HAS
 A WELL-DEFINED AND CLEAR EYE OF ABOUT 20 N MI DIAMETER...
 SURROUNDED BY NEARLY A COMPLETE RING OF CLOUD TOPS NEAR
 -70C...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
 ESTIMATES AT 06Z OF 102-115 KT. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED TO
 110 KT.  MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS SEEMINGLY CANNOT LAST TOO MUCH
 LONGER...HOWEVER...AS BUD IS QUICKLY CROSSING THE 26C SST ISOTHERM.
 CONCURRENT WITH THE STRENGTHENING...A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT 0230Z
 INDICATES THAT THE 34-KT WIND FIELD HAS CONTRACTED SOMEWHAT. SINCE
 BUD IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE IT WILL PROBABLY SPIN DOWN FAIRLY
 QUICKLY OVER THE COOLER WATERS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND ABOUT 24 HOURS
 WHEN IT REACHES SSTS OF LESS THAN 24C.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
 FORECAST ANTICIPATES JUST A SLIGHTLY MORE RAPID DECLINE THAN THE
 SHIPS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE CONTINUED BRISK FORWARD MOTION OF THE
 STORM...BUT STILL KEEPS BUD A HURRICANE THROUGH 36 HOURS.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BASED ON THE LAST 12 HOURS IS
 290/15...ALTHOUGH MORE RECENTLY IT HAS BEEN TRENDING LEFT OF THAT
 HEADING...OR MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE HURRICANE IS
 MOVING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
 THAT IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...AND TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN
 THE RIDGE ALONG ABOUT 130W.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THAT
 WEAKNESS TO BEGIN FILLING IN ABOUT 24-36 HOURS...ALLOWING THE RIDGE
 TO BUILD WESTWARD.  ONCE THAT OCCURS AND BUD WEAKENS OVER COOLER
 WATERS...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD ALONG ABOUT 21N
 LATITUDE...IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.  LEAVING OUT THE GFS THAT DOES NOT
 REPRESENT THE CIRCULATION OF BUD VERY WELL...THE OFFICIAL TRACK
 FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS A CONSENSUS OF THE REMAINING DYNAMICAL
 MODELS AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ONLY A LITTLE
 FASTER.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/0900Z 17.5N 120.5W   110 KT
  12HR VT     13/1800Z 18.4N 122.8W   100 KT
  24HR VT     14/0600Z 19.5N 125.6W    85 KT
  36HR VT     14/1800Z 20.4N 128.3W    65 KT
  48HR VT     15/0600Z 20.9N 130.9W    50 KT
  72HR VT     16/0600Z 21.0N 135.5W    30 KT
  96HR VT     17/0600Z 21.0N 140.0W    30 KT...REMNANT LOW
 120HR VT     18/0600Z 20.5N 144.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB
  
 
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