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 608 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 130240
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
 800 PM PDT WED JUL 12 2006
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT BUD HAS HAS AGAIN UNDERGONE RAPID
 INTENSIFICATION WITH THE EYE TEMPERATURE WARMING 30 DEGREES CELSIUS
 OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS TO MINUS 14 DEGREES CELSIUS. SATELLITE
 ANIMATION ALSO DEPICTS THAT THE EYE WALL HAS CLOSED OFF COMPLETELY
 OVER THE SOUTH SEMI-CIRCLE WITH CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN MINUS 80
 OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE 115 KT FROM
 TAFB...AND 90 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA.  BASED ON THIS AND AN ODT OF
 5.4 (99.6 KT) AT 00Z...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 100
 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND A
 LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
 THEREFORE...A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE
 FORECAST...FOLLOWING A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND THE FSU
 SUPER-ENSEMBLE.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KT. A
 MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM A HIGH SITUATED
 OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER BUD ON A
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. A BREAK IN THE
 RIDGE CREATED BY A STATIONARY MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 30N130W
 SHOULD INFLUENCE A SLIGHT REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE 24
 HOUR PERIOD. BY DAY 4...A SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKER BUD IS FORECAST TO
 TRACK WESTWARD AS THE LOW FILLS AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...ALLOWING
 THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD IN NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND FOLLOWS A
 CONSENSUS OF THE UKMET...NOGAPS...THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE AND THE
 GFDL.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      13/0300Z 17.1N 118.9W   100 KT
  12HR VT     13/1200Z 18.0N 120.8W    90 KT
  24HR VT     14/0000Z 19.1N 123.4W    80 KT
  36HR VT     14/1200Z 20.1N 125.7W    65 KT
  48HR VT     15/0000Z 20.7N 127.9W    50 KT
  72HR VT     16/0000Z 21.0N 132.5W    40 KT
  96HR VT     17/0000Z 21.0N 136.0W    30 KT
 120HR VT     18/0000Z 21.0N 139.5W    30 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
  
 
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