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 977 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 121449
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
 800 AM PDT WED JUL 12 2006
  
 SINCE ITS RAPID STRENGTHENING EPISODE YESTERDAY...BUD HAS BEEN
 UNDERGOING SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY AS EVIDENCED BY THE
 VARIABILITY OF THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES.  INFRARED IMAGERY OVER
 THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS HAS REVEALED AN OBSCURED EYE PATTERN WITH
 THE HURRICANE.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 90 KT AND 77
 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. THIS...ALONG WITH THE
 REDEVELOPED EYE PATTERN...JUSTIFIES RETAINING THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 AT 85 KT.  IF THE EYE BECOMES MORE DISTINCT AND PERSISTENT THE
 INTENSITY WOULD BE BUMPED UP SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON.  IN 24
 HOURS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE OVER COOLER WATERS SO THE WINDOW
 FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL SOON CLOSE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 CALLS FOR WEAKENING THEREAFTER...HOWEVER IT IS MORE CONSERVATIVE
 THEN BOTH THE GFDL AND THE FSU SUPER-ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE.
  
 BUD CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 295/11. A
 WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE IS FOUND
 BETWEEN 125W AND 130W AS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THESE
 STEERING INFLUENCES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT THROUGH THE
 PERIOD. A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST WITH SOME
 SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED DUE TO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE
 OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND
 FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE UKMET OFFICE TRACK. 
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/1500Z 15.7N 116.2W    85 KT
  12HR VT     13/0000Z 16.4N 118.1W    90 KT
  24HR VT     13/1200Z 17.5N 120.6W    80 KT
  36HR VT     14/0000Z 18.4N 123.3W    70 KT
  48HR VT     14/1200Z 19.3N 125.6W    60 KT
  72HR VT     15/1200Z 20.0N 130.0W    40 KT
  96HR VT     16/1200Z 20.0N 133.5W    30 KT
 120HR VT     17/1200Z 19.5N 137.0W    30 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
  
 
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