168 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 120857
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
 200 AM PDT WED JUL 12 2006
  
 THE CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE SLIGHTLY ELLIPTICAL EYE HAS DEEPENED
 DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...SSMI IMAGERY AT 0353Z
 REVEALED THAT THE EYEWALL WAS SLIGHTLY OPEN TO THE NORTHWEST... AND
 A BURST OF CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHEASTERN EYEWALL HAS VERY RECENTLY
 OBSCURED THE EYE IN INFRARED IMAGERY. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
 WELL-ESTABLISHED IN ALL DIRECTIONS...WITH PERHAPS JUST A SUBTLE
 RESTRICTION TO THE EAST DUE TO THE OUTFLOW FROM DEVELOPING TROPICAL
 STORM CARLOTTA. OTHER THAN THAT...WITH THE CENTER OF CARLOTTA ABOUT
 650 N MI EAST OF THE EYE OF BUD...THE CYCLONES APPEAR TO BE
 SUFFICIENTLY SEPARATED SUCH THAT SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION BETWEEN
 THEM IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR. DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 06Z WERE 77-90
 KT... AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 85 KT...BUT THE
 RECENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY MIGHT BE SIGNS THAT BUD HAS
 PEAKED IN INTENSITY.
  
 BUD CONTINUES MOVING ALONG THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AT ABOUT
 290/11.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL
 VORTICITY MAXIMUM NEAR 30N 130W ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MEXICO.  THE
 GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST LITTLE MOVEMENT OF THAT FEATURE DURING THE
 NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AFTER WHICH TIME THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD
 BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE PACIFIC.  BUD SHOULD NOT BE AFFECTED MUCH BY
 THAT WEAKNESS BEFORE IT DISAPPEARS...SO A CONTINUED
 WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS...
 FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD TURN SOUTH OF THE BUILDING RIDGE.  THE MODELS
 THAT HAVE A DECENT REPRESENTATION OF THE HURRICANE... SUCH AS THE
 GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS ANTICIPATE BUD TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
 HEADING LONGER THAN IN EARLIER RUNS...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
 FOLLOWS SUIT.  ALONG THIS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...BUD WILL BE
 REACHING THE SHARP SST GRADIENT IN LESS THAN 36 HOURS...AND THE
 SSTS WILL BE GRADUALLY ON THE DECLINE UNTIL THEN THAT TIME...SO THE
 NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAKS LOWER AT 90 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
 AND ALSO SHOWS A MORE RAPID DECLINE BEYOND THAT TIME.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/0900Z 15.0N 115.3W    85 KT
  12HR VT     12/1800Z 15.7N 117.0W    90 KT
  24HR VT     13/0600Z 16.6N 119.4W    90 KT
  36HR VT     13/1800Z 17.5N 121.7W    75 KT
  48HR VT     14/0600Z 18.5N 124.1W    60 KT
  72HR VT     15/0600Z 19.5N 128.5W    45 KT
  96HR VT     16/0600Z 19.5N 132.5W    35 KT
 120HR VT     17/0600Z 19.0N 136.0W    30 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB