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 583 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 120217
 TCDEP3
 HURRICANE BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006
  
 SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM THIS EVENING INDICATES THAT BUD HAS BEEN
 UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH AN EYE FEATURE FIRST PEAKING
 THROUGH THE CIRRUS CANOPY AROUND 2030 UTC AND THEN BECOMING CLEARLY
 DEFINED BY 2230 UTC. LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE AN
 IMPRESSIVE T4.5...77 KT...FROM SAB AND AFWA...AND T5.0...90 KT...
 FROM TAFB.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 80 KT IS A COMPROMISE OF THESE
 ESTIMATES BUT CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF THE SPECTRUM UNDER THE
 ASSUMPTION THAT THE WINDS ARE LAGGING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE. 
 WITH THE VERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED TO BE LOW AND THE SST SUFFICIENTLY
 HIGH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR INTENSIFICATION TO CONTINUE
 THROUGH 24-36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...BUD IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
 COOLER WATERS RESULTING IN GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL
 INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL
 THROUGH 48 HOURS BUT CALLS FOR SLOWER WEAKENING THEREAFTER. 
 
 THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10...ESSENTIALLY RIGHT ON THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. GLOBAL MODELS OFFER SOME INTERESTING
 SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM THE GFS WHICH SHOWS BUD MOVING
 WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTERACTING WITH AN ITCZ DISTURBANCE TO ITS
 WEST...TO THE NOGAPS AND CANADIAN MODELS WHICH PLOW BUD RIGHT INTO
 THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING EAST/WEST ACROSS THE
 PACIFIC.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
 WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO PRODUCE A GENERAL
 WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...WEAKENING IS
 EXPECTED WITH A TURN TOWARDS THE WEST BEGINNING BY 48 HOURS.  THE
 OFFICIAL FORECAST REPRESENTS ONLY A SLIGHT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT
 FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. 
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      12/0300Z 14.6N 114.1W    80 KT
  12HR VT     12/1200Z 15.2N 115.6W    90 KT
  24HR VT     13/0000Z 16.0N 117.7W   100 KT
  36HR VT     13/1200Z 16.8N 120.0W   100 KT
  48HR VT     14/0000Z 17.3N 122.3W    95 KT
  72HR VT     15/0000Z 17.5N 126.0W    80 KT
  96HR VT     16/0000Z 17.5N 130.0W    65 KT
 120HR VT     17/0000Z 17.5N 134.0W    50 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER RHOME/STEWART
  
 
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