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 079 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 112049
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
 200 PM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006
  
 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS THAT THE
 SHEAR/BURSTING PATTERN DESCRIBING BUDS DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THIS
 MORNING HAS NOW TURNED INTO A FAIRLY ORGANIZED BANDING-TYPE
 PATTERN. THE CENTER...WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED ON THE NORTH
 SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...IS NOW COMPLETELY SURROUNDED...THOUGH
 BY WARMING CONVECTIVE TOPS.  THERE ARE ALSO INDICATIONS OF A
 PRIMITIVE BUT SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FORMING AS WELL AS AN
 EXPANDING CIRRUS SHIELD TO THE NORTH...WHICH WAS PREVIOUSLY
 RESTRICTED.  ALL SIGNS POINT TO A RATHER ABRUPT INTENSIFICATION
 DURING THE LAST 6 TO 12 HOURS. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH SAB
 AND TAFB BEAR THIS OUT...BOTH COMING IN AT T3.0...OR 45 KTS. 
 HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RAPID INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION...THE INTENSITY
 WAS NUDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
 
 OVERNIGHT AMBIGUITIES REGARDING THE CENTER LOCATION ARE NO LONGER AS
 MUCH OF AN ISSUE...GIVEN THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT TREND. SMOOTHING
 OUT PREVIOUS POSITION ESTIMATES YIELDS A LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE
 OF 290 DEGREES...WEST-NORTHWEST...AT 9 KTS.  GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE
 THAT A DEEP-LAYERED MEAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF BUD WILL
 CONTINUE TO STEER IT ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST COURSE THE NEXT
 DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A DIGGING
 SHORTWAVE TROF ALONG 150W WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCEMENT AND WESTWARD
 EXPANSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD KEEP BUD
 ON A MORE WESTERLY COURSE.  ALL OF THIS ASSUMES THAT BUD REMAINS
 FREE OF THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY
 ORGANIZING SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO. SEVERAL PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS
 INDICATED THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME TYPE OF INTERACTION BETWEEN THE
 TWO SYSTEMS. FOR NOW...THIS WILL REMAIN A LOWER PROBABILITY
 ALTERNATE SCENARIO. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST...A BLEND OF BOTH THE GFDL AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.   
  
 WHATEVER NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WAS PRESENT OVER BUD UNTIL THIS
 MORNING HAS APPARENTLY WEAKENED...AS EVIDENCED BY ITS IMPROVED
 ORGANIZATION AND EXPANDING OUTFLOW.  A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
 FOR DEVELOPMENT COULD BE RELATED TO THE DISSIPATION OF A WEAK
 MIDDLE TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC COLD LOW TO ITS NORTHEAST.  WHILE THE
 SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FURTHER REDUCTION OF THE SHEAR AND
 A MORE FAVORABLE PATTERN OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE DURING THE NEXT
 24 TO 36 HOURS...IT TOO SUGGESTS THAT THIS WILL BE COMPETING WITH A
 SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THIS...ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT
 BUD IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 60 HRS...SHOULD
 LIMIT ITS DEVELOPMENT.  HOWEVER...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY SHOULD
 BE WIDE ENOUGH TO ALLOW BUD TO BECOME A MINIMAL HURRICANE.  IT
 SHOULD BE NOTED THOUGH THAT SYSTEMS SUCH AS BUD ARE NOTORIOUS FOR
 THEIR VOLATILE SWINGS IN INTENSITY.  AS SUCH...THE INTENSITY
 FORECAST PRESENTED HERE MAY HAVE LARGER-THAN-NORMAL ERRORS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/2100Z 14.4N 113.0W    50 KT
  12HR VT     12/0600Z 14.9N 114.3W    60 KT
  24HR VT     12/1800Z 15.5N 116.0W    65 KT
  36HR VT     13/0600Z 16.0N 117.9W    70 KT
  48HR VT     13/1800Z 16.6N 120.2W    75 KT
  72HR VT     14/1800Z 17.2N 123.9W    65 KT
  96HR VT     15/1800Z 17.4N 127.1W    45 KT
 120HR VT     16/1800Z 17.2N 130.6W    30 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ROTH
  
 
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