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 529 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 111449
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
 ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006
 
 SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT BUD IS EXHIBITING A
 CLASSIC BURSTING TYPE PATTERN...OFTEN SYMPTOMATIC OF A SHEARED
 ENVIRONMENT. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM BOTH SAB AND TAFB HAVE COME IN
 AT T2.5...35 KTS...SO NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY HAS BEEN MADE ON THIS
 PACKAGE. THE POSITION ESTIMATES FROM 12Z WERE CLOSER THAN SEEN
 PREVIOUSLY...AND SUGGESTS A WESTERLY ADJUSTMENT FROM SIX HOURS AGO.
 THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE AMBIGUITY IN THE 06Z CENTER POSITION
 AND IS NOT INTERPRETED AS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK. THE RECENT
 MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285...WEST-NORTHWEST...AT 8 KTS.
 
 THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN NORTH OF BUD FEATURES AN UPPER CYCLONE NEAR THE
 COAST OF SOUTHWEST CANADA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO
 NORTH AMERICA WHICH THEN ALLOWS THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE 
 EXPAND FARTHER WESTWARD LATE THIS WEEK. THE DEPICTION OF THE
 CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL STORM...PARTICULARLY IN THE UKMET...IS
 COMPLICATED BY INTERACTIONS WITH A RELATIVELY SMALL AND SHALLOW ONE
 TO ITS WEST IN THE ITCZ. THE SMALL WESTERN CIRCULATION IS NOT
 EXPECTED TO IMPACT BUD MUCH AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS THE
 LARGER/DOMINANT CIRCULATION...SO LITTLE WEIGHT IS GIVEN TO THE
 UKMET AND CONU FORECASTS. THE DISTURBANCE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
 ACAPULCO IS ALSO NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR IN BUDS TRACK
 FORECAST AT THIS TIME...THOUGH AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO GIVING THE
 DISTURBANCE MORE WEIGHT IN THE TRACK FORECAST WOULD SLOW DOWN BUD
 MORE THAN IS CURRENTLY PROGGED. BUD SHOULD CONTINUE TRACKING
 WEST-NORTHWEST UNTIL IT ENTERS COOLER WATERS BECOMING STEERED
 INCREASINGLY BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL SURFACE RIDGE. THE CURRENT
 TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 
 
 A SMALL UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE NORTHEAST OF BUD IS PRODUCING WEAK
 NORTHERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH APPARENTLY IS RETARDING ITS
 DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. EVEN THOUGH MODELS DO NOT INITIALIZE THIS
 SMALL SCALE FEATURE WELL...OR AT ALL...IT SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME
 LESS INFLUENTIAL WITH TIME. THIS IS OBSERVED IN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
 WHICH SHOWS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASING TO MORE FAVORABLE
 LEVELS. HOWEVER...THE SHIPS MODEL ALSO INDICATES THAT THE 200MB
 TEMP WILL BECOME WARMER WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC
 COMPONENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT MAY BE LACKING AS THE
 ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE STABLE.  THIS ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT BUD
 IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM BETWEEN 48 AND 72 HRS SHOULD
 LIMIT DEVELOPMENT.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/1500Z 13.9N 112.6W    35 KT
  12HR VT     12/0000Z 14.3N 113.8W    40 KT
  24HR VT     12/1200Z 14.8N 115.3W    45 KT
  36HR VT     13/0000Z 15.5N 117.1W    50 KT
  48HR VT     13/1200Z 16.0N 119.2W    55 KT
  72HR VT     14/1200Z 16.9N 122.5W    45 KT
  96HR VT     15/1200Z 17.2N 126.2W    35 KT
 120HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N 129.8W    30 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER ROTH/KIMBERLAIN
  
 
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