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 973 
 WTPZ43 KNHC 110901
 TCDEP3
 TROPICAL STORM BUD DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP032006
 200 AM PDT TUE JUL 11 2006
  
 A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS BACK AT 0145Z RETRIEVED A FEW 35-KT VECTORS JUST
 OUTSIDE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION... BUT I STILL SUSPECT THOSE WERE
 SLIGHTLY RAIN-INFLATED...AND 30 KT SEEMS LIKE A REASONABLE ESTIMATE
 OF THE INTENSITY AT THAT TIME.  SINCE THEN THE DEPTH AND EXTENT OF
 THE CONVECTION HAVE INCREASED... AND THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES
 ARE UP TO 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB.  THOSE ESTIMATES
 DIFFER IN PART BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATITUDE OF THE CENTER
 LOCATION.  BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE QUIKSCAT DIRECTIONAL
 AMBIGUITIES...AND RECENT PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM WINDSAT AND
 SSMI...I HAVE SETTLED ON A CENTER LOCATION IN BETWEEN THE
 GEOSTATIONARY FIXES.  GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CONVECTION SINCE THE
 QUIKSCAT PASS... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER
 DVORAK ESTIMATE... AND THE SYSTEM IS NAMED TROPICAL STORM BUD WITH
 35 KT MAXIMUM WINDS.  THE ADVISORY POSITION REPRESENTS A NORTHWARD
 ADJUSTMENT FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK OF ABOUT 45 N MI... AND THE
 FORWARD MOTION IS NOW ESTIMATED AT 295/7.
  
 SINCE THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE PACIFIC
 FROM MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY REMAIN IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OF
 BUD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS... A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS
 FORECAST.  HOWEVER...THE DEPICTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE
 TROPICAL STORM IN THE GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS IS COMPLICATED BY
 INTERACTIONS WITH TWO OTHER CIRCULATIONS...A RELATIVELY SMALL AND
 SHALLOW ONE ABOUT 500 N MI TO THE WEST IN THE ITCZ...AND THE LARGER
 AND DEEPER DISTURBANCE ABOUT 800 N MI TO THE EAST.  SINCE THE
 CIRCULATION OF BUD HAS BECOME FAIRLY ROBUST...I TEND TO FAVOR THE
 MODELS THAT DEPICT IT WELL...IN PARTICULAR THE GFDL AND
 ECMWF...WHICH DO NOT SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INTERACTION WITH EITHER OF
 THE OTHER CIRCULATIONS.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS A BIT NORTH OF
 AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... WHICH BRINGS BUD TO COOLER
 WATERS A LITTLE SOONER... IN ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
 INTENSITY FORECAST PEAKS AT 60 KT... IN BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL
 SOLUTIONS... FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER COOLER WATERS.
  
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INITIAL      11/0900Z 13.7N 111.3W    35 KT
  12HR VT     11/1800Z 14.2N 112.3W    40 KT
  24HR VT     12/0600Z 14.8N 113.7W    45 KT
  36HR VT     12/1800Z 15.2N 115.1W    50 KT
  48HR VT     13/0600Z 15.8N 117.1W    55 KT
  72HR VT     14/0600Z 17.0N 121.0W    60 KT
  96HR VT     15/0600Z 17.5N 124.5W    50 KT
 120HR VT     16/0600Z 17.5N 128.0W    35 KT
  
 $$
 FORECASTER KNABB
  
 
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