939 
 WTNT42 KNHC 220256
 TCDAT2
  
 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011
 1100 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011
  
 THE SYSTEM LOST ESSENTIALLY ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION SEVERAL HOURS
 AGO...AND IT IS ESTIMATED THAT BRET HAS NOW WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL
 DEPRESSION.  THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HOSTILE FOR THE
 MAINTENANCE OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH STRONG SHEAR AND COOLING
 WATERS...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
 LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT STATUS OF
 BRET...THE SYSTEM COULD LOSE ITS TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS MUCH
 SOONER THAN THAT.
 
 BRET HAS ACCELERATED AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 050/12...PERHAPS
 A LITTLE FASTER.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE IN THE FLOW TO
 THE NORTH OF THE MID- TO LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL
 DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE
 AND CLOSE TO THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  22/0300Z 35.6N  68.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
  12H  22/1200Z 36.9N  65.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  23/0000Z 38.4N  61.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
  36H  23/1200Z 40.0N  57.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  24/0000Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER PASCH