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 652 
 WTNT42 KNHC 212037
 TCDAT2
  
 TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011
 500 PM AST THU JUL 21 2011
 
 THE CENTER OF BRET REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE NORTHEAST OF A PERSISTENT
 CLUSTER OF CONVECTION.  AN ASCAT OVERPASS AT 1500 UTC SHOWED AN
 AREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  BASED ON THIS AND
 THE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE PAST
 FEW HOURS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT.  ANALYSES FROM THE
 SHIPS MODEL AND FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE
 THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO
 35-40 KT...AND THIS IS ADVECTING MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE
 CYCLONE.  ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW BRET WEAKENING TO A TROUGH
 IN 48 HR OR LESS...AND THEREFORE THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
 SUIT.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
 ADVISORY.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AT 060/9.  OTHER
 THAN THAT...THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
 FORECAST REASONING.  BRET SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY NORTHEASTWARD TO
 EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
 RIDGE UNTIL IT DISSIPATES...WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
 SPEED DURING THAT TIME.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT
 A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF...THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  21/2100Z 34.2N  69.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  22/0600Z 35.5N  67.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  22/1800Z 37.3N  63.8W   25 KT  30 MPH
  36H  23/0600Z 39.0N  59.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  23/1800Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
  
 
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