323 
 WTNT42 KNHC 210859
 TCDAT2
  
 TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022011
 500 AM AST THU JUL 21 2011
  
 DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS...CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS TO -70C HAS
 REDEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT AS NORTHERLY VERTICAL SHEAR
 HAS ABATED SLIGHTLY. SATELLITE DATA-T NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND
 SAB ARE T2.5/35 KT. SHIP WPGK PASSED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT
 AROUND 0300Z...BEFORE CONVECTION HAD REDEVELOPED...AND REPORTED A
 WIND SPEED OF 32 KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
 BRET IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 35 KT.
  
 THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 050/07. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
 PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. BRET IS GRADUALLY BEING
 CAUGHT UP BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...BUT ITS FORWARD PROGRESS
 IS BEING IMPEDED BY NORTHERLY WIND SHEAR THAT IS FORECAST TO BECOME
 NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...ONLY SLOW
 FORWARD PROGRESS IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE
 CYCLONE WEAKENS AND IS STEERED MORE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST BY
 LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A STRONG
 SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED ALONG 30N LATITUDE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
 TRACK IS SIMILAR TO BUT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
 BASICALLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE.
  
 ALTHOUGH THE NORTHERLY SHEAR ACROSS BRET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
 DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...THE 200 MB WIND FIELDS ACTUALLY SHOW
 THE SHEAR DECREASING BY 24 HOURS. FOR THIS REASON...BRET IS BEING
 HELD ONTO AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION A LITTLE LONGER THAN SOME OF THE
 MODEL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING. HOWEVER...AFTER 36 HOURS THE SEA
 SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH THE CYCLONE ARE FORECAST TO DROP BELOW
 26C...AND THAT SHOULD RESULT IN DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW
 PRESSURE SYSTEM. BY 48 HOURS...BRET IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE
 COMPLETELY OVER MUCH COLDER 20-22C SST WATER.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  21/0900Z 33.1N  71.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
  12H  21/1800Z 34.4N  70.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
  24H  22/0600Z 36.2N  67.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
  36H  22/1800Z 37.8N  64.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
  48H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART
  
 
 
 432 
 WTNT43 KNHC 210859
 TCDAT3
  
 TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032011
 500 AM AST THU JUL 21 2011
  
 CINDY HAS DEVELOPED A DOUGHNUT HOLE IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTION.
 WHILE I AM NOT READY TO CALL THIS AN EYE FEATURE...IT DOES SUPPORT
 INCREASING THE WIND SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
 ONLY SUPPORT 35 KT...GRADIENT WIND COMPUTATIONS USING THE CENTRAL
 PRESSURE AND NEARBY SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS OF 1022-1023 MB IN THE
 SOUTHEAST QUADRANT SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT. AS A
 RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 50 KT FOR THIS
 ADVISORY...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
  
 THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045-24. CINDY REMAINS EMBEDDED IN STRONG
 SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW THAT WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY
 ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AND MOVE QUICKLY OVER MUCH COLDER WATER 
 IN ABOUT 124 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
 PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED
 MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE.
  
 SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR TERM AS CINDY
 REMAINS OVER SSTS OF AT LEAST 24C. BY 24 HOURS...HOWEVER...
 SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER MUCH
 COLDER WATER.  DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY 72 HOURS DUE TO COLD
 WATER AND STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR.
  
 FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
  
 INIT  21/0900Z 38.3N  49.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
  12H  21/1800Z 40.7N  45.6W   55 KT  65 MPH
  24H  22/0600Z 43.8N  40.3W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  36H  22/1800Z 46.8N  34.4W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  48H  23/0600Z 50.0N  27.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
  72H  24/0600Z...DISSIPATED
  
 $$
 FORECASTER STEWART